- Otherpositive for stockslong-termWith advanced AI and hacking, all companies need advanced cyber security, making it a very strong secular investment theme that will do well over the long run; the host holds these positions for the long term.Source
- BKNGneutralBKNG's fundamentals are still good; the share price fell due to concerns that AI agents may disrupt its business model, not because fundamentals declined. The host bought near the COVID bottom, has huge profits, already sold half at the high, and will not sell the remainder.Source
- Otherpositive for stockslong-termLVMH's revenue and profit decline is a short-term cyclical macro issue; its core economic moat is still there, and once the cycle shifts revenues and profits will grow again and it will come back strongly, so the host holds.Source
- CPRTbullishlong-termCPRT's revenue and profit decline is a short-term cyclical issue; its core economic moat is still there, and once the cycle shifts it will come back strongly, so the host holds.Source
- POOLbullishlong-termPOOL's revenue and profit decline is a short-term cyclical issue; its core economic moat is still there, and once the cycle shifts it will come back strongly, so the host holds.Source
- NKEneutrallong-termNike's business is fixable but will take longer than expected; the new CEO's focus areas are growing double digits, but the lifestyle division is still dragging, and it will take one to two years to fix, so the host is not adding.Source
- CRWDbullishlong-termAlthough CRWD is overvalued short term, over the next three to five years it is expected to double and triple or more, so the host is holding for the long run.Source
- FTNTbullishlong-termAlthough FTNT is overvalued short term, over the next three to five years it is expected to double and triple or more, so the host is holding for the long run.Source
- PANWbullishlong-termAlthough PANW is overvalued short term, over the next three to five years it is expected to double and triple or more, so the host is holding for the long run.Source
- Otherpositive for stockslong-termThe host keeps one foot in the AI trade and another in the anti-bubble trade; anti-bubble stocks have nothing to do with building AI but benefit from it, make up 57% of the portfolio, and will become the engine cushioning the portfolio when AI growth slows.Source
- ASMLbullishASML is a first-bucket holding directly building AI infrastructure, part of the undervalued or fairly priced AI trade alongside NVDA and AVGO; the host continues to hold.Source
- OtherneutralHyperscalers (Google, Microsoft, Amazon, META) have one foot in AI capex and one foot in other businesses; when AI capex slows they could be hurt or could benefit as profits come back, so it is a 50/50 proposition.Source
- Otherpositive for stocksInsurance companies will benefit from AI because AI increases productivity, lowers costs, and increases profit margins.Source
- JPMbullishJPMorgan and other banks will benefit from AI because AI increases productivity, lowers costs, and increases profit margins.Source
- SPGIbullishS&P Global will benefit from AI because AI increases productivity, lowers costs, and increases profit margins.Source
- AI Capexpositive for stockslong-termAI capex growth is still ongoing and could continue for another one to three years; this year AI capex stocks provided the biggest return, so the host keeps one foot in the AI trade.Source
- SOXXbullishSOXX is part of the first bucket directly involved in building AI infrastructure, is undervalued or fairly priced, and is powering the portfolio this year; the host continues to hold.Source
- UNHbullishUnitedHealth is one of the anti-bubble stocks, up 26% year-to-date, and the host may be adding more to the position.Source
- SPYbullishmid-termTechnicals and fundamentals suggest a high probability the market goes much higher by year-end. The S&P 500 forward PE of 19.1 is below the 5-year average and equal to the 10-year, so it is fairly priced; earnings growth of 32% exceeds the 14% price gain, and midterm-year seasonality is strongly bullish.Source
- Otherpositive for stockslong-termSince 1950, in the 19 midterm election years, the market was higher 95% of the time three months after November and 100% of the time six and twelve months later, making it one of the most bullish periods.Source
- AMZNbullishAmazon is the host's biggest position and the most diversified with the most profit margin expansion potential once AI and robotics are fully deployed; it is in a nice uptrend and should continue to trend up, though slightly overvalued versus $233 intrinsic value, so he will only add on a pullback.Source
- MSFTneutralMicrosoft is undervalued with an intrinsic value of 570, but the host would not buy right here after a wave up; he prefers to add on a pullback near support.Source
- GOOGLbullishshort-termAlphabet is undervalued below its $374 intrinsic value, consolidating, and will probably push higher in the next couple of weeks.Source
- Otherpositive for stocksThe new consumer AI agent revolution has begun; autonomous agents will shop and book on behalf of humans, which is positive for platforms, payments and compute, but negative for middlemen and ad-funded search marketplaces.Source
- SNAPbearishSNAP's social app and similar non-diversified businesses could be hit really badly by the AI agent revolution.Source
- RDDTbearishRDDT and similar non-diversified businesses could be hit really badly by the AI agent revolution.Source
- PINSbearishPINS and similar non-diversified businesses could be hit really badly by the AI agent revolution.Source
- Othernegative for stocksNG and other middlemen lacking a moat or resources could get hit a lot worse.Source
- CARSbearishCARS and other middlemen lacking a moat or resources could get hit a lot worse.Source
- TRIPbearishTRIP and other middlemen lacking a moat or resources could get hit a lot worse.Source
- Othernegative for stocksCall centers and outsourced support companies could also be affected negatively by AI agents.Source
- FVRRbearishFVRR and similar freelance platforms are disrupted because AI agents can do all the work.Source
- UPWKbearishUPWK and similar freelance platforms are disrupted because AI agents can do all the work.Source
- VbullishIn a consumer agentic AI world, Visa and other payment rails will be positively impacted.Source
- PYPLneutralAlthough PYPL is a payment rail, it has other problems so the host would not touch it.Source
- MAbullishIn a consumer agentic AI world, Mastercard and other payment rails will be positively impacted.Source
- SHOPbullishOpen commerce merchant platforms will be positively impacted in a consumer agentic AI world.Source
- WMTbullishWalmart and other open commerce merchants will be positively impacted in a consumer agentic AI world.Source
- TSMbullishRunning AI agents requires much more compute power, so TSM will benefit a lot as a compute and infrastructure supplier.Source
- AVGObullishRunning AI agents requires much more compute power, so AVGO will benefit a lot as a compute and infrastructure supplier; the host continues to hold.Source
- METAbullishMETA has launched its consumer agentic AI app and new AI frontier models; based on a conservative intrinsic value of $900 it is still 17% undervalued, and the host thinks it has one of the biggest upside potentials, worth at least $900.Source
- NVDAbullishlong-termNVDA is the granddaddy of AI infrastructure; at $224 versus $309 intrinsic value it is 27% undervalued with a forward PE of only 14, and it has a powerful role in physical AI/robotics, so the host is still holding.Source