Zac美股笔记

Selling my entire top position in Nvidia! Not because I'm bearish, what's the real reason? | Zac US Stock Notes

4 bull · 0 bear · 5 neutralYouTube

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• NVDA▲bullishlong-termThe host believes NVIDIA's fundamentals will stay intact for the next two to three years, expects the stock to recover, and would consider adding around 150 or 160.Source
• NVDA●neutrallong-termThe host plans to exit NVIDIA within six to twelve months if Huang does not return and the new CEO underwhelms; this is not a bearish call but reflects leadership uncertainty.Source
• AI Capex↗positive for stockslong-termThe host sees continued cloud capex growth keeping NVIDIA's GPU revenue and profit healthy for at least the next two to three years.Source

• META▲bullishlong-termThe host sees Meta as a high-certainty artificial-intelligence mega-cap with a founder still in his prime, and suggests preferring such names over NVIDIA.Source
• GOOGL▲bullishlong-termThe host sees Alphabet as high-certainty because both founders are still deeply involved, especially in artificial intelligence, making it a preferred AI long idea.Source
• MSFT●neutralThe host is neutral on Microsoft, neither liking nor disliking it, and gives no direction.Source
• SE●neutralThe host says he never considers buying Shopee because he dislikes the company; no price direction is given.Source
• APP●neutralThe host avoids AppLovin because he dislikes the advertising platform; no directional view is given.Source
• TSM●neutralThe host discloses a current TSMC position and says he likes the company, but gives no price direction or target.Source

Jensen Huang strikes again with a second wave! NVDA plummets 10%, Nvidia is my top holding, what should I do now? | Zac US Stock Notes

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Jensen Huang affair, NVDA crash, should we buy the dip or hedge now? | Nvidia | Zac US Stocks Notes

1 bull · 0 bear · 8 neutralYouTube

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• NVDA▲bullishlong-termThe host sees the scandal as a short-term event with no long-term fundamental impact and expects revenue to keep growing; he has no plan to sell, would add near 170 if the issue is only personal, considers the stock cheap versus his DCF value of 360, but will not trade before the November 18 congressional briefing because political and espionage risk is beyond his ability to judge.Source
• AMZN●neutralThe host cites Jeff Bezos of Amazon as an example that personal moral flaws have nothing to do with corporate operations or fundamentals, a brief neutral remark using a past case with no price direction for Amazon.Source
• UNH●neutralThe host uses last year's assassination of UnitedHealth's chief executive as an example that such short-term shocks only cause temporary volatility and should not be a reason to sell a stock, a brief neutral observation with no price direction.Source

• NFLX●neutralThe host cites Netflix as a company where most shareholders do not know or care who the chief executive is, a brief neutral observation without a price direction.Source
• MCD●neutralThe host cites McDonald's as an example of a company where the identity of the chief executive barely matters to most shareholders, a brief neutral observation with no price direction.Source
• KO●neutralThe host groups Coca-Cola with McDonald's and Netflix as companies where the chief executive's identity is unimportant to most shareholders, a brief neutral view with no price direction.Source
• TSLA●neutralThe host says one reason he does not buy Tesla is that tying a company's fate to one person is too risky, repeatedly worrying about what would happen if something happened to Elon Musk, so he avoids the stock without stating a price direction.Source
• SPCX●neutralThe host groups SpaceX with Tesla, saying that without Elon Musk they would be completely different companies, and that the risk tied to something happening to him is too high; this is a brief key-man risk warning with no stated price direction.Source
• Geopolitics●neutralThe host thinks the timing of the revelation after the midterm elections suggests a political game targeting tech leaders close to Trump, but because Jensen Huang is crucial to U.S. artificial intelligence and national interests and has broad support, the likely outcome is a warning hearing followed by the matter fading away.Source

US stocks suffer a brutal crash, what to do? Is AI finished? Has it hit rock bottom? Emergency update on US stock market game plan | Zac's US Stock Notes

8 bull · 4 bear · 6 neutralYouTube

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• Other●neutralThe host notes that portfolios focused on defensive stocks probably held up relatively well, without stating a clear price direction.Source
• SPY▼bearishshort-termAfter a huge bearish candle, the host sees elevated near-term risk, doubts a clean V-shaped rebound tonight, and expects the index to likely drift lower toward the 200-day moving average.Source
• Other●neutralshort-termThe host explains margin calls and forced liquidation can cause a cascade, but expects the deleveraging pressure to dissipate within a day or two; no price direction is given.Source

• Market Breadth↘negative for stocksshort-termThe fear-and-greed gauge only reached 20 rather than single-digit extreme fear, so the host suspects the market has not yet bottomed.Source
• AI Capex↗positive for stocksshort-termWith new data-center approvals constrained, existing capacity becomes more valuable and supply tight; the host sees an apparent short-term positive for the major cloud providers.Source
• AMZN▲bullishshort-termAmazon is grouped with the major cloud providers; the host thinks constraints on new data centers make existing capacity tight, an apparent short-term positive for the group.Source
• AI Capex↘negative for stockslong-termOver the longer run, limits on data-center construction would curb cloud capex and AI development, so the host says the major cloud providers also lose out.Source
• AI Capex↘negative for stocksmid-termThe host argues that if new data centers are not built, AI hardware names such as chips, memory and optical communications could see revenue hit over the next one to two years, making them clearly bearish in the medium term.Source
• Geopolitics●neutralAlthough Democrats control Congress and some governors oppose new data centers, the host thinks Trump can veto bills and states have economic incentives to welcome data centers, so actual restrictions are unlikely.Source
• AI Capex↗positive for stockslong-termThe host views the selloff as mostly emotional and technical, believes the long-term AI capex story is not over, and calls himself an optimistic permabull.Source
• PLTR▲bullishshort-termPalantir reached the host's previously stated 158-160 add zone, and he disclosed that he added; this left-side purchase and personal position make him bullish.Source
• ASML▲bullishASML fell so sharply that the host added to it despite having no prior plan; the disclosed personal position makes this a bullish view.Source
• NVDA▲bullishAfter NVIDIA reached the host's planned 190 add level, he disclosed that he added to his position; this left-side buying and personal holding make him bullish.Source
• GOOGL●neutralshort-termAlphabet has not yet fallen to the host's desired add level, so he is waiting; no explicit price direction was stated.Source
• MSFT●neutralshort-termMicrosoft is named as a stock the host would add to on further weakness, but he does not state an explicit price direction.Source
• Other●neutralThe host repeatedly warns against leverage and says only idle cash should be used for left-side averaging down; it is risk-management guidance with no price direction.Source
• AVGO▲bullishshort-termBroadcom fell to 291 yesterday; the host's planned add level is 290, and he would consider adding if it reaches 290 today, a bullish staged-entry plan.Source
• Market Breadth↗positive for stockslong-termWith no major disaster, war, plague, rapid Fed hikes and with sound economic fundamentals, the host does not expect a bear market ahead.Source

Volume-Price Analysis: Can Volume Really Predict Stock Prices? Introduction to Technical Analysis | Zac US Stock Notes

2 bull · 1 bear · 1 neutralYouTube

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• AMZN▲bullishAfter Amazon's earnings the shares plunged, but the heavy volume that day signals institutional accumulation; the host therefore sees a relatively high probability that this level is a bottom and that the stock may reverse higher.Source
• INTC●neutralThe host cites Intel's 30% post-earnings drop on huge volume as a case where institutional forced liquidation, rather than accumulation, likely drove the volume, contrasting with Amazon; it is a retrospective explanation with no forward directional call.Source
• MSFT▼bearishshort-termMicrosoft's recent price decline on expanding volume is a high-level volume-price divergence suggesting institutions may be distributing, so the host sees a reasonable chance of further downside; he already took profit twice on the earlier top divergence and has been waiting for a drop to buy back, so he welcomes the pullback.Source

• Other↗positive for stocksDBS is Singapore's largest bank and has been a strong performer, but its turnover is thin compared with US stocks; after an unusually sharp recent drop the host added to his position and is considering adding more if it falls further, showing a buy-the-dip stance, while noting the poor liquidity and slow order fills.Source

US Big Tech Bottom-F大致 Signal is Coming Soon | Bottom-F大致 Levels: PLTR, META, Google, Amazon, NVDA, MSFT | Zac US Stock Notes

10 bull · 0 bear · 9 neutralYouTube

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• Earnings●neutralThe host noted that, aside from NVIDIA, big-tech third-quarter earnings were essentially complete; results were actually solid with growing revenue and profit, yet shares fell sharply after reporting, suggesting the market was punishing anything tied to tech or AI indiscriminately.Source
• Market Breadth↗positive for stocksshort-termThe host said that, as longtime viewers would know, he again saw a dip-buying window approaching for big-tech names.Source
• Other●neutralThe host noted that over the prior two weeks the major cloud providers and AI-related stocks had fallen broadly; Palantir, as the only pure AI-application name, had been seen as the sector's hope but ultimately also failed to hold up.Source

• Geopolitics●neutralThe host observed that Palantir's revenue was overwhelmingly US-based and argued that expanding worldwide, especially into Europe, offered very large potential, while acknowledging that trust issues made it difficult.Source
• AAPL●neutralThe host noted that Apple reported earnings alongside Palantir, gapped down but then formed a bullish intraday candle and performed reasonably well. He said revenue and profit grew and beat expectations, with no major issues in the financials, but gave no explicit buy or sell direction or price level.Source
• Market Breadth●neutralThe host said that since shares still fell after decent earnings, the overall market mood must simply be poor, and he suspected recent forced selling from fund deleveraging as another possible cause.Source
• Valuation●neutralThe host said tech names were having their share prices pushed down and valuations compressed regardless of AI exposure, with fund deleveraging and poor sentiment as possible drivers, but argued the selloff had little to do with fundamentals. At the same time, several names had become attractive relative to his own valuation estimates.Source
• QQQ▲bullishshort-termThe host argued the roughly 10% Nasdaq pullback was not driven by deteriorating fundamentals because big tech companies remained highly profitable and were growing profits faster. Although the index was still in a downtrend and the exact bottom was unpredictable, he said it was close to a dip-buying window and that further declines were adding opportunities rather than a reason to panic.Source
• PLTR▲bullishshort-termThe host counted Palantir among his real-money big-tech holdings and said the earnings showed rapid, accelerating revenue growth with commercial revenue overtaking government revenue for the first time, while valuation was much cheaper than a few months earlier. Although the intraday rebound was still a false bullish candle, he saw around 160, which coincided with a prior-high support, as a good add zone and very attractive if reached.Source
• META▲bullishshort-termThe host counted Meta among his real-money big-tech holdings and said the post-double-top decline had already run its measured course; if a full bottom formed in the next day or two, adding just above 600 was reasonable, and a drop to the 540 range-box lower bound would be even better. He saw no major problem with the ad business, cited a personal AI assistant as a potential revenue driver, remained long-term bullish, and viewed the current price as attractive versus his 797 valuation estimate.Source
• GOOGL▲bullishshort-termThe host counted Google among his real-money big-tech holdings and said the post-earnings drop had brought it near the prior low, making around 270 a good add level; he had already added shares on the earnings-day selloff. He attributed softer-than-expected ad growth to the ongoing transition of how ads are shown in AI answers, noted cloud growth above 100%, and called the selloff a good dip-buying opportunity.Source
• AMZN▲bullishshort-termThe host included Amazon in his real-money portfolio and said the post-earnings plunge did not reflect any fundamental problem; his latest valuation estimate was 281 and the current price looked attractive. He noted the second-day selloff had already reached a good add zone tested twice before, lamented adding only five shares, and said he would add more if the price returned to the 220s-230 support area in the coming days.Source
• MSFT●neutralmid-termThe host said Microsoft was one of his real-money portfolio holdings but had the lowest weight after he took partial profits earlier. He viewed the business as among the most stable, yet the share price was above his 353 valuation estimate, so he did not see a buy point yet and wanted a larger pullback first; he also thought the free-cash-flow-based estimate was understated because of heavy capex. He would watch for a clear bottom pattern over the next one to two months to add it back, while saying the exact level was unknowable.Source
• AI Capex●neutralThe host said heavy AI-related capex across big tech had depressed free cash flow, with several names turning negative, so valuations built on free cash flow were necessarily understated. He had switched to other methods for those names and argued that Microsoft's estimate was almost certainly too low because its free cash flow was still positive.Source
• NVDA▲bullishshort-termThe host counted NVIDIA among his real-money big-tech holdings and said the upcoming earnings should not be bad, its valuation estimate would likely keep rising, and the current share price was attractive. He called yesterday's decline a good entry point and the 200-day moving average a well-tested support, noting he had added shares a few days earlier but was saving cash for other names.Source
• Other●neutralThe host said ASML sits at the deepest layer of AI hardware and was dragged down because sentiment toward AI hardware stocks was broadly poor.Source
• ASML▲bullishshort-termThe host disclosed ASML as a recently opened position and said its business and products have no substitutes, with valuation far above the share price. Although it was dragged down by weak sentiment toward AI hardware names, he called the current technical setup a good add or entry point and said investors without a position could consider buying a little; he personally did not add because the recent entry price was too close to current levels to meaningfully lower his cost.Source
• AVGO▲bullishshort-termThe host disclosed Broadcom as a position opened three months earlier that he had bought on the way down, bringing his average cost to 359. He said fundamentals and finances were sound and his 611 valuation estimate was far above the share price, while the circular-financing concern was only a low-probability potential risk; he called the stock severely undervalued and worth a bet, with the current technical level attractive and a further drop to around 290 (a prior low and potential support) prompting another add.Source
• Market Breadth↗positive for stocksshort-termThe host said the fear-and-greed index could give a clear dip-buying signal during a larger market pullback: it was around 20 and already in extreme fear, but a decisive entry should wait for a single-digit reading such as 9 or 8. He said he would buy the previously discussed big-tech names as aggressively as possible once that happened, and that both a further drop and a rally from here were welcome rather than something to fear.Source

US stocks are crashing! Even a long-term bull like me is starting to worry. Has it hit rock bottom? | Zac US Stock Notes

6 bull · 2 bear · 5 neutralYouTube

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• SPY●neutralshort-termThe S&P 500 held up slightly better — the mid-cycle prior low is not yet broken, only the short-cycle low — with no direction called.Source
• QQQ▼bearishshort-termQQQ gapped below its prior low into a downtrend; the host sees continued downside as only slightly more likely (55/45), with supports at 677, 660, and 630.Source
• NVDA▼bearishshort-termNVIDIA, the AI leader that had kept higher lows, broke two prior lows on Friday and broke its mid-term uptrend, which surprised the host.Source

• INTC●neutralIntel fell over 30% intraday at worst; the host follows it little, declines to re-analyze earnings, and says his view is unchanged from his video two months ago.Source
• MSFT●neutralmid-termMicrosoft grew revenue 19% and cloud 30% with still-positive free cash flow, but its valuation is a bit high and a $25B bond sale after earnings signals capex strain.Source
• GOOGL●neutralmid-termGoogle's cloud revenue grew 103%, but that includes one-off TPU sales which may not repeat, so the host is reserved about its durability.Source
• META▲bullishlong-termMeta grew revenue 26% and adjusted operating profit 11%; the host argues these mega-caps, except Microsoft, are not expensive and the selloff is unjustified.Source
• Valuation↗positive for stockslong-termMAG-7 forward PE is under 22, the lowest since 2020, while all are highly profitable and growing fast; the host calls current prices clearly not expensive and the selloff irrational.Source
• AI Capex↗positive for stockslong-termCiting SpaceX and Google executives, the host argues AI compute capex pays back in about two years against 5–6 year hardware life, so the spending will be recouped and market fears are purely emotional.Source
• MA▲bullishlong-termA rumor that AI would kill credit cards had crushed Mastercard, but the host sees card payments essential for 5–20 years and the long-term trend up; MA has since hit all-time highs.Source
• V▲bullishlong-termSame logic as Mastercard: the host sees card payments irreplaceable long-term and Visa's earnings intact, so the long-term uptrend holds despite short-term sentiment shocks.Source
• Market Breadth●neutralshort-termThe host attributes the outsized drop to quant selling triggered at broken supports plus suspected institutional liquidation, which amplified fear; short-term prices are sentiment-driven, not fundamental.Source
• AMZN▲bullishlong-termAmazon grew revenue 12%, operating profit 61%, and AWS 39%; the host used his last cash to buy five shares on Friday's 10% gap-down, putting money behind his buy-the-dip view.Source

Google Earnings Tank Over 12%, Cloud Business Skyrockets 103%, Why Still Can't Save the Stock Price? | Zac US Stocks Notes

2 bull · 0 bear · 1 neutralYouTube

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• GOOGL▲bullishlong-termThe host added 20 shares on the earnings dip and holds the stock, arguing cloud is the fastest-growing among mega-caps and could overtake search as the core business in 1-2 years, with valuation now back to fair value.Source
• AI Capex↗positive for stockslong-termThe host views selling AI compute as extremely lucrative with fast payback, and Google's cloud is growing fastest among the mega-caps, set to become its main revenue source.Source
• GOOGL●neutralshort-termThe host notes the stock broke below its converging triangle even before earnings, and with only one candle so far, the short-term direction is unknowable.Source

SpaceX Financials Explode: What Is the Stock Actually Worth Now? Can We Buy It? | Zac US Stock Notes

6 bull · 1 bear · 1 neutralYouTube

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• META▲bullishlong-termHolding META, he trimmed only five shares at the neckline break and regrets not cutting more; long-term he remains bullish and plans to add at the bottom of the trading range.Source
• GOOGL●neutralshort-termHe cut 19 GOOGL shares on the triangle breakdown, keeping 50; the earnings reaction is unpredictable, but a selloff driven only by higher capex would be an adding opportunity.Source
• NVDA▲bullishmid-termHe discloses adding small lots of NVIDIA (10–25 shares) over the past two weeks, funded by trimming META and GOOGL.Source

• AVGO▲bullishmid-termHe discloses buying Broadcom on its recent multi-day decline, funded by the META and GOOGL trims.Source
• ADBE▼bearishshort-termHe fully exited Adobe: a long-term reversal is possible, but near-term momentum is clearly too weak, so he sold first.Source
• MSFT▲bullishshort-termWith ~$7,000 cash from the Adobe sale, he plans to buy GOOGL and MSFT, adding if post-earnings drops are large enough, though timing is uncertain.Source
• AI Capex↗positive for stocksmid-termMajor cloud providers signal compute demand keeps rising for the next one to two years, supply falls short, and AI capex pays back in under a year — justifying relentless spending.Source
• SPCX▲bullishlong-termHe raised SpaceX's fair value to $130 using 50% revenue growth and a 10% discount rate; at ~$144 the stock is approaching a range where he would consider buying on further weakness.Source

Meta's Earnings Look Good, But Stock Plummets 7%! I Ran the Numbers and Found a Bigger Problem | Zac US Stocks Notes

2 bull · 0 bear · 2 neutralYouTube

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• AI Capex↗positive for stockslong-termThe host argues Amazon, Google and Microsoft earn back AI capex quickly by selling cloud compute — under two years to break even, then pure profit — unlike META's self-use model.Source
• META●neutralmid-termHis own estimate shows META's roughly $69.7B of AI compute capex produced only about $36.6B of incremental revenue, so under the current ads-only model the capex cannot pay for itself.Source
• AMZN●neutralmid-termThe host views Amazon's blocking of Muse as a negotiation stance, not a permanent refusal, since a hard ban would also hurt Amazon, and expects a deal once terms are right.Source

• META▲bullishlong-termThe host holds META and stays bullish: ads remain an accelerating cash machine, the Muse assistant adds a new revenue channel, and META can cut capex anytime to restore free cash flow, so he plans to buy back his trimmed position.Source