Couch Investor

We Need To Talk About Nvidia, CoreWeave and Nebius Before Tomorrow

4 bull · 0 bear · 1 neutralYouTube

NVDACRWVNBIS

• NVDA▲bullishlong-termThe host argues the Jensen scandal doesn't change NVIDIA's fundamentals: fast growth, high profitability, cheap valuation at 21.9x trailing and 14.3x forward PE, so risk-reward favors reward.Source
• NVDA●neutralmid-termThe host acknowledges the scandal could be an overhang for months or quarters, especially if the spy allegations prove true, but honestly doesn't know.Source
• CRWV▲bullishmid-termCoreWeave posted an excellent report: 168% revenue growth, improving margins for two straight quarters, raised guidance, a ~$10B GPU renewal revenue opportunity, and capped future parent-level raises at $5B through 2027.Source

• NBIS▲bullishshort-termThe host discloses a big existing position in Nebius and, citing GPU pricing data from CoreWeave and Iron, sees no scenario where tomorrow's report isn't strong, with 2027 ARR potentially well above $25B triggering a rerating.Source
• AI Capex↗positive for stockslong-termDespite weeks of fear-mongering headlines, the host says nothing has changed the thesis for semiconductors, AI cloud players, and big tech — only valuations and stock prices — and we are still early in the build-out and adoption cycle.Source

The Machine Behind Every Advanced AI Chip

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Rocket Lab's Fairing Opens Like a Mouth Then Closes #shorts

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Every Satellite Is Already Falling

0 bull · 0 bear · 3 neutralYouTube

• Other●neutralAtmospheric drag in low orbit and roughly five-year satellite lifespans mean a 10,000-satellite constellation must replace about 2,000 units every year indefinitely. The host frames this perpetual replacement cycle as a subscription rather than a one-time launch.Source
• Other●neutralBecause the replacement demand is recurring, the host says the recurring revenue accrues to whoever owns the rockets. He does not name a specific company or state a bullish or bearish price direction.Source
• Other●neutralThe host rejects the notion that a constellation can be finished: ongoing orbital decay and perpetual replacement mean nothing up there is ever finished. As a result, replacement demand never ends.Source

Every Satellite Is Already Falling

0 bull · 0 bear · 3 neutralYouTube

• Other●neutralAtmospheric drag in low orbit and roughly five-year satellite lifespans mean a 10,000-satellite constellation must replace about 2,000 units every year indefinitely. The host frames this perpetual replacement cycle as a subscription rather than a one-time launch.Source
• Other●neutralBecause the replacement demand is recurring, the host says the recurring revenue accrues to whoever owns the rockets. He does not name a specific company or state a bullish or bearish price direction.Source
• Other●neutralThe host rejects the notion that a constellation can be finished: ongoing orbital decay and perpetual replacement mean nothing up there is ever finished. As a result, replacement demand never ends.Source

COREWEAVE Q3 EARNINGS REPORT BREAKDOWN

7 bull · 2 bear · 7 neutralYouTube

IRENAVGOAMDMSFTPLTRGOOGL+4

• IREN●neutralshort-termThe host merely notes IREN and similar names will trade in sympathy with CoreWeave's earnings, without a directional call.Source
• AVGO●neutralshort-termBroadcom is grouped with AMD as the anti-Jensen trade, staying green during NVIDIA's sell-off; a market observation only.Source
• AMD●neutralshort-termThe host observes AMD staying green while NVIDIA sells off, characterizing it as the anti-Jensen trade at the moment.Source

• Inflation↘negative for stocksshort-termA hotter-than-expected CPI report puts more pressure on the Fed to raise rates, possibly 25 or even 50 basis points in December.Source
• MSFT●neutrallong-termDespite Anthropic's new Office competitor, the host is not worried about Microsoft given its bundling strength — Microsoft will be fine.Source
• Other↗positive for stocksmid-termThe host is getting excited about the Anthropic IPO at ~$1.2T rather than $2T, suggesting it may be expensive because it's the greatest startup of all time; he might buy the IPO.Source
• PLTR▲bullishlong-termPalantir will benefit from Anthropic's success, which is why the host welcomes the IPO even without buying it.Source
• GOOGL●neutrallong-termThe host criticizes Gemini as unfriendly and Google's products as scattered, but concedes Google makes a lot of money, which is what matters.Source
• NVDA▲bullishmid-termBased on the Anthropic S-1 already released, the host says investors should be excited about NVIDIA, which benefits from Anthropic's success.Source
• SMCI▲bullishmid-termSuper Micro is named among the beneficiaries of the Anthropic S-1 disclosures; investors should be excited about it.Source
• CRWV●neutralshort-termThe guest discloses money in CoreWeave but calls earnings an inflection point: if management dodges debt and profitability questions, the stock goes much lower; he did not add before the print.Source
• AI Capex↗positive for stockslong-termThe host says he is super bullish on the neo-cloud trade, noting CoreWeave has added more new compute than all smaller neo-clouds combined.Source
• CRWV▲bullishlong-termAfter a broad beat, the hosts argue CoreWeave just needs to execute: $130B+ backlog versus a low-$30B market cap, improving margins, and revenue inflecting higher.Source
• Bonds & Rates●neutralshort-termThe host explains why CoreWeave bonds are being sold: fear that revenue won't grow fast enough and that a 9.2% yield isn't juicy enough, with current yields at 15–17%.Source
• Fed Policy↘negative for stocksshort-termThe guest expects a 25bp hike at the December meeting, with some Fed presidents floating 50, which he says does not help markets.Source
• NBIS▲bullishlong-termThe host prefers Nebius over CoreWeave, viewing it as growing faster while taking on much less risk — his preferred winner in the neo-cloud space.Source

Why Rockets Are Mostly Fuel

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A €4M Missile to Kill a Cheap Drone. Helsing Is Aiming for Under €100K

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Rocket Lab Raised Prices $15M on a Rocket That Never Flew

0 bull · 0 bear · 3 neutralYouTube

RKLB

• RKLB●neutralThe host questions the logic of raising launch prices before the rocket has flown, but does not state a direction for RKLB shares.Source
• Other●neutralThe host says the scarce resource in space launch is seats rather than rockets, using signed missions, distant open slots, and tight capacity as context.Source
• Other●neutralThe host asks how long a sold-out launch calendar can wait for its first flight, pointing to timing risk without giving an investment direction.Source

I Get Paid to Promise My Shares Away

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