BWB - Business With Brian

Best Monthly Dividend ETFs That Still Grow Your Money

1 bull · 2 bear · 2 neutralYouTube

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• Other●neutrallong-termA higher dividend yield does not mean a better fund; the yield is already included in total return, so adding them double-counts it — investors must look at total return.Source
• JEPI▼bearishlong-termJEPI and QYLD were excluded from his list because both failed his price test of having a higher share price than five years ago.Source
• MAIN▲bullishlong-termThe one monthly-dividend stock he would consider, having never cut its regular dividend since 2007 and beaten the S&P 500 over five years, but its 64% COVID drawdown means keeping it small.Source

• O▼bearishlong-termDespite paying monthly dividends for over 55 years, its share price is down about 14% from five years ago, so it failed his price test.Source
• Other●neutrallong-termBecause big monthly dividend payouts are mostly non-qualified and taxed like wages, he personally keeps dividend assets like these only in an IRA or other tax-advantaged account.Source

I Bought the 2020 Crash. I’m Doing It Again With This Plan

12 bull · 0 bear · 3 neutralYouTube

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• SPY▲bullishlong-termAcross 15 single-day S&P 500 drops of 4%+ over 30 years, buying on the down day left you higher a year later 12 of 15 times with a typical ~18% gain, so he advocates buying fear-driven crashes.Source
• AAPL●neutrallong-termApple fell only ~1.5% on Thursday, failing his pullback test, and his 3-year forecast of ~12% annual growth is among the lowest of the big names he follows.Source
• NVDA▲bullishlong-termHis model rates NVIDIA severely undervalued with ~38% annual 3-year growth; it is already ~12% of his portfolio so he did not add, but would have if his position were smaller.Source

• TSM▲bullishlong-termTSMC gets paid regardless of which chip designer wins, with sales up ~41% last quarter and his ~25% annual growth forecast; he bought on Thursday per his averaging system.Source
• ASML▲bullishlong-termASML is the only maker of machines for printing the most advanced chips, and demand exceeding supply gives it pricing power; he forecasts ~26% annual growth and bought it Thursday.Source
• AMD▲bullishlong-termAMD is the most realistic NVIDIA alternative, with its data center business nearly doubling and an OpenAI deal expected to exceed $100B; he forecasts ~49% annual growth and bought it Thursday.Source
• LRCX▲bullishlong-termLam's machines build chip circuits layer by layer, so rising chip demand drives its sales; record quarter up ~54% and ~34% forecast growth, with China exposure (~a third of sales) the key risk.Source
• CRDO▲bullishlong-termCredo's AI-server cables use less power and fail less; sales tripled last year with 80%+ growth expected, though margin compression is the risk. His ~46% growth forecast is more conservative than analysts' >100% upside target.Source
• ALAB▲bullishlong-termAstera's connectivity chips win regardless of whether cloud giants buy NVIDIA, AMD, or custom silicon; sales up ~150% year over year with his ~45% annual growth forecast.Source
• IONQ▲bullishlong-termIonQ is a quantum company actually selling machines, with quantum sales more than doubling and ~$1.2B in signed contracts — over double this year's expected revenue — checking his long-term box.Source
• RMBS▲bullishlong-termRambus's memory-interface chips ride AI server memory growth; record sales up ~22% with his ~23% annual growth forecast, while analysts' 12-month target implies ~68% upside.Source
• COHU▲bullishlong-termCohu's test handlers touch a huge share of shipped chips; orders more than doubled, two of the biggest cloud companies are now customers, guidance is for 30–40% sales growth next year, and it just swung back to profit.Source
• Market Breadth↗positive for stocksmid-termBig money returns to the biggest companies first after crashes — large caps led in all three historical cases he reviewed — and small caps carry roughly 1-in-3 odds of a 40% drawdown, so he weights dry powder 70/25/5 toward mega- and mid-caps.Source
• IREN●neutrallong-termHe owns and likes IREN, but the Bitcoin-miner-turned-AI-cloud is burning cash and carrying ~$10B of debt, so his system says new money should wait until the business is proven.Source
• OKLO●neutrallong-termOklo is building small nuclear reactors but has no real sales yet, failing his checklist; his system says new money should wait until the business is proven.Source

It’s Starting: Wall Street Is Running for the Exit

1 bull · 0 bear · 2 neutralYouTube

• Other●neutralThe host reviewed eight notable waves of hedge fund selling since the financial crisis, acknowledging that one episode saw further declines and that nothing is guaranteed, but said that most of the time the drop did not last.Source
• Other↗positive for stockslong-termThe host argues that money from hedge fund selling does not disappear but is put back to work, so the market will start growing again; he supports this with his own practice of buying and holding for years.Source
• Other●neutrallong-termHe disclosed that he buys with a plan to hold for years and said a strategy does not just change in a week, reflecting a long-term personal holding stance.Source

This Memory Dip Is a Gift (My Full Map)

8 bull · 0 bear · 5 neutralYouTube

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• Other↗positive for stockslong-termSK Hynix is the host's canary for memory: posting its best-ever quarter while exposed to both the China and helium threats signals the industry's strength is real.Source
• MU▲bullishlong-termThe host is constructive on Micron: the only US maker of both HBM and DRAM, holding $12.7B of non-cancelable customer prepayments, with the lowest PEG of the group.Source
• SNDK●neutralmid-termThe host is cautious on Sandisk: flash is the first layer expected to loosen, and the company's own long-term plan only calls for teens growth, warranting medium-to-low confidence.Source

• WDC▲bullishlong-termThe host likes Western Digital as pure pricing power: no new hard drive factories are being built and it ships 22% more storage at 28% higher prices, though he caps confidence at medium.Source
• STX▲bullishlong-termThe host is positive on Seagate: most data center drives are pre-sold through 2028 with some cloud deals to 2030, though the rich valuation at 18 times forward earnings is the weak spot.Source
• AI Capex↗positive for stocksmid-termThe host reads AI capex as accelerating: Microsoft says demand still outruns supply and Google more than doubled spending with further significant increases planned, much of it flowing into memory.Source
• GOOGL●neutrallong-termThe host notes Alphabet's PEG sits above one and that Wall Street punished it for doubling capex — a valuation observation without a directional call.Source
• MSFT●neutrallong-termThe host notes Microsoft's PEG sits above one and its spending miss was only timing of rented data center capacity — a valuation observation without a directional call.Source
• NVDA▲bullishlong-termIn passing, the host notes NVIDIA's PEG ratio sits below one, making it look cheap relative to growth like most memory makers.Source
• Other↗positive for stockslong-termThe host sees the post-June pullback as a strong entry point for memory stocks, arguing prepaid long-term customer contracts make this cycle fundamentally different from 2018.Source
• RMBS▲bullishlong-termThe host views Rambus as unfairly dragged down: its interface chips sell at steady prices independent of memory pricing, yet its estimates are the most reliable of the group.Source
• Other●neutralmid-termThe host cautions that the SK Hynix ADR costs about 48% more than the equivalent Korean shares, and a shrinking premium could hurt buyers even if the business performs.Source
• SOXX●neutralmid-termThe host notes SOXX has about 11% in memory at a 0.33% fee with minimal overlap to the other funds, but warns against holding it alongside SMH given their 69% overlap.Source

Nvidia Just Gave Away the Next Boom (THIS IS HUGE!)

4 bull · 2 bear · 6 neutralYouTube

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• AI Capex↗positive for stockslong-termThe host calls the chip selloff a phenomenal buying opportunity, arguing the biggest buyers never blinked and the data-center buildout runs much longer than the selloff assumes.Source
• Other↗positive for stockslong-termEdge computing is barely getting started but will become the bigger business around the early-to-mid 2030s, and its eventual impact will be a true tsunami.Source
• NVDA▲bullishlong-termHis signal ladder puts NVIDIA at 'severely undervalued', the deepest tier; at roughly 23 times next year's earnings for a company growing that fast, he sees a low price and dollar-cost averages on the way down.Source

• AVGO●neutralmid-termBroadcom's custom AI chip business is booming, but heavy customer-financing exposure and insider selling pull his system's rating back from undervalued to only slightly undervalued.Source
• MU▲bullishlong-termWith over 75% of next year's shipments committed and long-term deals through 2030, the host sees the building blocks for memory being beyond cyclical — at worst a 10-year cycle carrying the buildout into 2030.Source
• SNDK●neutralmid-termSanDisk's edge business grew fivefold, but big funds are taking money off the table and the price fell below his system's worst-case value, triggering a reassess-the-fundamentals stance.Source
• QCOM▼bearishmid-termQualcomm's phone chips fell about 19% as costly memory cuts phone production, and his ladder rates it slightly overvalued — the market already credited the obvious edge names.Source
• ARM●neutralmid-termArm collects royalties from both sides and data-center royalties doubled, but at about 100 times next year's earnings it flips between slightly overvalued and fairly valued — the edge story is priced in.Source
• AMBA●neutralmid-termAmbarella is his pure edge play, but growth has slowed for six straight quarters, funds are exiting, and 14% of shares are short; he wants growth to tick back up before getting interested.Source
• TSLA▼bearishlong-termHe takes only about 10% of Musk's claims, notes the failed 2019 robotaxi promise, three straight quarters of whale selling, and a 200x forward multiple — his system has Tesla merely fairly valued.Source
• GOOGL●neutralmid-termAlphabet collects on both sides — 82% cloud growth, a $514 billion backlog, and Gemini powering Apple's new Siri — but his system has it fairly valued, with most good news already in the price.Source
• AMZN●neutralshort-termAWS backlog hit about $496 billion and his system just moved Amazon to slightly undervalued, but big-money signals are split and he wants to see next week's earnings before acting.Source

Every Midterm Since 1946 Ended the Same Way

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These 4 Stocks Pulled Back. The Spring Is Loaded

6 bull · 0 bear · 1 neutralYouTube

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• Earnings↗positive for stocksshort-termThe host notes that Q3 earnings will probably come in at almost 30% growth, using it as context for the coiled-spring market idea, but the view is hedged and passing.Source
• PLTR●neutralPLTR was used as a historical example of a coiled spring that already sprang; the host says it is not a pick for today and offers no current directional view.Source
• AI Capex↗positive for stockslong-termThe host believes AI infrastructure and cloud capacity demand is extremely strong, with not enough capacity to meet demand in 2026 and likely also in 2027; this robust AI capex demand underpins the coiled-spring thesis across multiple names.Source

• AMZN▲bullishlong-termAmazon's cloud business demand is strong and capacity is sold out, but heavy capex has hurt free cash flow and the stock has lagged. The host believes the spring is still compressing and will pop once data centers come online. He is already maxed out on Amazon from prior employer stock, so he is not adding.Source
• AVGO▲bullishlong-termBroadcom's AI chip sales and backlog are strong, with cheap growth relative to earnings, but customer concentration and circular financing are risks. The host says the spring is still compressing and needs proof that customers pay; his system says buy a little, but he does not disclose a personal position.Source
• SNDK▲bullishlong-termSandisk (SNDK) is the long-term storage play, with data center demand driving a surge in sales and signed orders. The host thinks memory may no longer be as cyclical and that if prices hold, the spring will release; he is dollar-cost averaging into the position.Source
• APLD▲bullishlong-termApplied Digital (APLD) builds AI data centers with $36B of signed leases, but rent currently falls short of interest; the host expects rent to catch up by year-end and exceed interest by mid-next year. He sees the spring as nearly fully compressed, is dollar-cost averaging in, and notes the potential to double in 18 months, though he explicitly says this is not a price target.Source