The host believes the S&P 500 has entered an energy-depletion phase after years of gains; the earlier breakout was a false breakout that is now reversing, and a correction or drop is likely in the near term.
Western Digital has retraced about 59% since June, with its stock pressured after the market hyped Toshiba's expansion of HDD production; it reports Thursday after the close. The options put/call open interest ratio of 1.3 is biased bearish and the expected move is +/-13%, showing that significant funds bought puts to hedge before earnings, reflecting strong market concern about the storage chip cycle and demand continuity.
The host is bullish on the current capital expenditure cycle, noting that while growth has peaked, absolute spending has not yet peaked and is not yet an obvious drag on semiconductors.
The host predicts a relatively high probability that Tesla will rise after earnings and bets on an increase; Tesla rebounded 3.76% today, showing support at the 60-day MA, with funds betting ahead of earnings on positives such as auto revenue beats, energy storage growth, Full Self-Driving and AI chip progress, and robotaxi cumulative mileage. The options market prices post-earnings movement at about 24 dollars (6.5%), and in the past five reports it rose twice and fell three times. His public account recovered 2.18% due to Tesla's rebound, and he still holds the stock.
The host believes banning Chinese AI is a positive for US domestic AI giants, because a price war would lower these giants' revenue and extend the payback period of capital expenditures.