What NaNa说美股 said in this video:
- Fed Policyneutralmid-termThe base case is still likely a pause in October and action in December, because several Fed officials have signaled they are not eager to hike consecutively; policy remains highly data-dependent and there is no need to hike at every meeting.Source
- TLTneutralReal rates have exceeded 10-year inflation expectations, so whether rates have topped is still uncertain; however, institutions seem to be buying stocks and hedging, TLT's technical selling pressure is easing, and most institutions forecast year-end 10-year Treasury yields below current levels.Source
- QQQbearishshort-termQQQ fell to its 50-day MA dragged by semiconductors; a small bounce is possible but not worth playing, because after the bounce it will likely decline further, first filling the 721 gap, with stronger support between 700 and the half-year line below.Source
- SOXXneutralThe semiconductor index fell 4.3% and the AI sector kept bleeding; although the pullback is relatively large, the decline remains orderly overall.Source
- ASMLneutralASML's results showed strong equipment purchases and raised guidance, clearly positive for semiconductor equipment and the global AI computing supply chain; but under the current AI narrative this is useless, because what matters is whether institutions are willing to pay for AI infrastructure.Source
- AI Capexnegative for stocksThe AI narrative is no longer about demand strength but whether institutions are willing to pay for AI infrastructure under current conditions; financing costs have choked expansion, suppressing forward earnings expectations, valuations, and the leadership structure of the entire AI sector.Source
- CRWVbullishshort-termCoreWeave carries heavy debt and financing costs far above target returns, facing default risk if the AI capex cycle reverses; but unless the US AI bubble truly bursts, the current 60 to 65 dollar level is still worth considering for swing trading.Source