What Meet Kevin said in this video:
- Fed Policypositive for stocksshort-termHost notes rate hike expectations rose after CPI, with markets pricing 4.86 hikes this cycle and October hike odds at 49.3%; without an Iran deal, the Fed will likely hike in October and December.Source
- Bonds & RatesneutralHost notes the 10-year Treasury yield is rubberbanding above 5.27 and 5.312 is high; he hopes it fades but gives no firm direction.Source
- Employmentnegative for stocksHost notes individual pricing power (average hourly earnings) fell 0.7% year-over-year, showing workers are losing pricing power, an early crack in labor.Source
- PLAYbearishHost cites Dave & Buster's as an example of a company bleeding out because the consumer is getting whacked, corroborated by its earnings call.Source
- Consumernegative for stocksHost says the consumer is getting whacked at every level while pricing power falls, partly due to AI, hurting the consumer sector.Source
- AI CapexneutralHost says the Fed needs to deal with inflation caused by AI, and AI is also an early crack driving down worker pricing power and killing jobs.Source
- Inflationpositive for stocksHost says CPI is bad; inflation is not receding on its own, with the three-month trend moving from 2% to 3.4% and moving in the wrong direction, driven in part by AI and broad-based pressures.Source
- Recession Riskpositive for stocksHost warns layoffs are coming and the unemployment rate will skyrocket to 8%, as AI eventually kills jobs.Source