What NaNa说美股 said in this video:
- Market Breadthneutralshort-termThe VIX spiked about 36% intraday to 22.3, dragging the broader market lower. The host suspects either a short-volatility institution blew up or that Trump may strike Iran over the weekend; otherwise the pulse cannot be explained.Source
- Oil & Energypositive for stocksshort-termCrude oil surged intraday because the US House plans to revoke Trump's agreement to import Russian diesel, and Middle East conflicts have seen parties attacking each other's energy facilities, weakening expectations for supply relief. Traders increased bets on higher oil prices before the weekend; if the US really strikes Iran, it would explain the abnormal VIX reaction.Source
- QQQbearishshort-termThe host viewed QQQ's rebound yesterday as merely a relief rally and had planned to exit if it reached the 5-day moving average, because next week would likely turn turbulent again. Today it plunged directly with no chance to run, failing to touch the 5-day MA and being slapped below the half-year line.Source
- Fed Policynegative for stocksshort-termThere is a Fed meeting and US midterm elections from late October to early November; the current market sell-off may be pricing these events in ahead of time.Source
- Market Breadthpositive for stocksmid-termLooking on the bright side, after this round of decline paves the way for a deep pit, there is a high probability of a big rebound before year-end; it is just painful to catch the falling knife right now.Source
- SPYbearishshort-termThe S&P 500 plunged to the previously predicted downside extreme of 7,640-7,650 and broke below it; it closed unable to reclaim 7,700, showing extreme weakness, with the short-term trend completely dominated by bears. On the weekly chart, it may test the 20-week moving average near 7,600 next week.Source