What 老李玩钱 said in this video:
- Fed Policynegative for stocksshort-termThe Fed started a new tightening cycle in September and the dot plot still points to one more 25bp hike this year; if the October meeting does not hike, the December meeting will likely still hike. After the hot CPI, the October hike probability rose from about 20% to 50%.Source
- Bonds & Ratesnegative for stocksHotter-than-expected CPI pushed up inflation concerns, driving the 10-year Treasury yield to 5.28%; whenever Treasury yields spike, it is a relatively bearish factor for US stocks, especially tech stocks.Source
- SPYbearishshort-termThe S&P 500 is around 7715; it will likely continue lower to test the 7610 support. If 7610 holds, the pullback is limited, with next major support at 7500. The broader market remains at high levels, so the downside is seen as a normal pullback.Source
- QQQbearishshort-termThe Nasdaq is around 26670; the first support below is around 25950, which it may test. If it holds, there is no problem; the next major support is 25000. The market still has some downside room.Source
- Otherpositive for stockslong-termHistorically, in the 1–3 months after the Fed's first hike US stocks usually fall, but 6 and 12 months later the probability of gains rises to 63% and 75%; combined with the typical pre-midterm turbulence and strong post-election 12-month performance, October's pullback is expected and represents a buying opportunity in quality stocks.Source
- SOFIneutrallong-termSoFi is a rate-sensitive small/mid-cap growth stock that benefits from rate cuts and suffers from hikes; with the Fed restarting hikes, the stock is under pressure. Today's drop was driven by CPI-driven hike expectations and BAC's earnings dragging financials, not company fundamentals. Although not optimistic near term, the host is still following his left-side plan with small adds, now holding 520 shares with a 600 target, cost basis 13.7, and plans to add slightly below 13.7.Source