What Meet Kevin said in this video:
- TLTbullishshort-termTLT appears to have bottomed around October 8th and is slowly recovering after consistently bouncing off the 7877 level; whether it returns to that level depends on the CPI reading.Source
- InflationneutralThe CPI expectations setup is very tough this time; even if the data matches expectations, the readings are still bad and the market will be hard to please.Source
- Fed Policypositive for stocksIf the market starts to un-price additional future rate hikes—i.e., no longer pricing four other hikes—that is relatively bullish for the market.Source
- Inflationnegative for stocksshort-termCore CPI came in hotter than expected, showing more persistent inflation pressure and forcing the Fed's hand on rate hikes, which is bearish for the market.Source
- Bonds & Ratesnegative for stocksshort-termBecause CPI came in hot, Treasury yields should move higher, implying downward pressure on bond prices.Source
- Oil & EnergyneutralOil prices can pass through into services, as energy prices end up in items like airfare tickets.Source
- RHneutralFurniture and bedding prices got a little less expensive, implying less pricing power for Restoration Hardware.Source
- Fed Policynegative for stocksshort-termSeptember's hike was almost certainly not one-and-done; after a CPI reading like today's, it would take a special miracle for the Fed to be finished hiking.Source