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Signals Updates YouTubers History Scorecard

Signals Updates YouTubers History Scorecard

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阳光财经 Sunny · YouTuber updates · US Stock Watch

US Stock WatchEvery call, with the quote

Signals Updates YouTubers History Scorecard

Signals Updates YouTubers History Scorecard

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阳光财经 Sunny

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阳光财经 Sunny

@SUNNYFINANCE40 videosChinese channel

2026-11-131 video

2026-11-13

Nvidia is failing to stabilize, is it worth adding to your position? [2026-11-13]

Nvidia is failing to stabilize, is it worth adding to your position? [2026-11-13]

7 bull · 0 bear · 6 neutralYouTube

SPY QQQ DIA COST WMT NVDA+2

AI Capexpositive for stocksmid-termThe host argues that after the NVIDIA management crisis and post-election selloff, AI-related names failed to break down, so the AI trade can still consolidate and resume its rise.Source
SPYbullishlong-termThe host sees the S&P 500 consolidating around 7300 and believes the medium-to-long-term uptrend remains intact unless a major black swan hits, with annual-line support below.Source
QQQbullishlong-termThe host believes that as long as the Nasdaq holds most of this year's gains, the outlook for next year remains bullish, while short-term action stays range-bound above the annual line.Source

DIAneutralThe host notes the Dow edged up while the Nasdaq fell, signaling mild internal rotation from tech into defensive names, but gives no explicit directional call for the Dow.Source
COSTbullishlong-termThe host notes Costco hit a new all-time high and its long-term uptrend remains intact, arguing short-term shocks do not derail star companies' long-term uptrends.Source
WMTbullishshort-termThe host thinks Walmart is probably fundamentally better than Costco and that defensive retail names won't be permanently impaired by a couple of weak quarters, with earnings coming up.Source
NVDAbullishshort-termThe host believes NVIDIA will likely give strong guidance at next week's earnings call, and after the crash any positive news could spark a rebound.Source
NVDAbullishlong-termThe host discloses he holds NVIDIA with a cost basis of $120, sees the forward P/E at 10-13x, and thinks the stock is worth buying if the leadership transition succeeds.Source
AMDneutralshort-termThe host attributes AMD's drop to short-term profit-taking and concern that the NVIDIA event could slow the whole AI chain, without giving a clear directional call.Source
InflationneutralThe host points out headline PPI rose to 6.5% year-over-year, and with energy and tariff pressures inflation's decline has stalled; this is macro context rather than a clear trade call.Source
Fed Policyneutralshort-termThe host expects the Fed will most likely deliver a 25bp hike in December and the market has already digested another hike this year.Source
Bonds & RatesneutralThe host says the 10-year Treasury yield closed at 5.14% and staying above 5% makes borrowing expensive, siphoning capital from equities and weighing on tech valuations.Source
MSFTneutralThe host says the Microsoft outage actually shows its operating system and office software remain hard to replace in the AI era, and the stock was barely affected.Source

AI CapexInflationFed PolicyBonds & Rates

2026-11-121 video

2026-11-12

Nvidia massive $100B turnover, Tesla surges intraday. [2026-11-12]

Nvidia massive $100B turnover, Tesla surges intraday. [2026-11-12]

1 bull · 0 bear · 4 neutralYouTube

SPY QQQ AVGO NVDA

SPYneutralmid-termAfter rebounding into 60-day moving average resistance, the host sees no sustained uptrend and expects choppy trading into Christmas.Source
QQQneutralThe Nasdaq bounced at the 200-day line and held above it; the host sees limited downside and expects sideways or slightly higher.Source
AVGOneutralThe host notes Broadcom also gets some benefit from NVIDIA's leadership turmoil, without giving a clear directional view.Source

NVDAbullishshort-termThe host discloses a current NVDA position with a cost basis of $120.46 and sees $148.8 as a likely important bottom; if the leadership transition is smooth, the stock should stabilize and rebound.Source
OtherneutralThe host believes broad index ETFs such as VOO, SPY, and QQQ diversify single-stock black-swan risk and are only exposed to systemic risk, and he has recommended them for over six years.Source

Other

2026-11-111 video

2026-11-11

Can you buy ANT, Nvidia crashes after hours, a sixty-year-old man in his prime. [2026-11-11]

Can you buy ANT, Nvidia crashes after hours, a sixty-year-old man in his prime. [2026-11-11]

5 bull · 2 bear · 2 neutralYouTube

SPY QQQ DIA MU SPCX NVDA+1

SPYneutralshort-termThe host views last Thursday's selloff as an overreaction that has been largely repaired, with the index back in its trading range.Source
QQQbullishshort-termThe Nasdaq briefly broke below its annual line then reclaimed it with three straight up days; the host notes buying below that line has a decent success rate in this super cycle.Source
DIAbullishshort-termWith four straight up days, the host sees the Dow still accumulating upward momentum and expects the major indices to resume a grinding uptrend.Source

MUbullishmid-termMicron rallied 12% off support at its annual line; the host, whose position is underwater, sees the memory boom lasting another one to two years as long as compute buildout continues.Source
Othernegative for stockslong-termThe host argues the $1.4T IPO valuation already front-runs the growth story, with a $900B compute bill and fierce competition; once the debut hype fades, the stock could fall quickly.Source
Otherpositive for stocksshort-termThe host expects Anthropic to hold above its IPO price initially thanks to greenshoe support and hot IPO demand, with short-term upside; subscribing with idle cash is reasonable.Source
SPCXneutralmid-termThe host recalls SpaceX rallied three days after listing, then entered a long pullback and still trades around its IPO price — a template for how Anthropic may behave.Source
NVDAbearishshort-termOn a reported Jensen Huang affair, the host says he will very likely step down and NVIDIA fell sharply after hours, leaving his recent dip-buy position underwater.Source
AMDbullishshort-termHalf-jokingly, the host says AMD is the better stock to trade since CEO Lisa Su carries less management-scandal risk.Source

Other

2026-11-102 videos

2026-11-10

Microsoft suddenly went soft again.【2026-11-10】

Microsoft suddenly went soft again.【2026-11-10】

8 bull · 8 bear · 9 neutralYouTube

SPY QQQ NVDA AMD SOXX MSFT+3

SPYneutralshort-termThe host describes the S&P 500 pullback as a normal consolidation after the prior day's big rebound, with a small bullish daily candle; no directional call is made, though a third-party report cites a 7,100-7,300 bottoming zone.Source
SPYneutralshort-termThe host views the small pullback as normal consolidation after a big rebound, with sentiment clearly improved.Source
QQQbullishshort-termTwo bullish candles put the Nasdaq back above its annual moving average; the host calls the daily chart leaning optimistic and views the annual line as long-term support with a relatively high statistical chance of holding, giving a mildly positive short-term bias.Source

QQQbullishshort-termHe leans optimistic on the Nasdaq: two bullish candles reclaimed the yearly line, a long-term support that statistically tends to hold.Source
NVDAbullishlong-termHe sees GPUs still in short supply, with the announced 70% revenue growth next year achievable and rivals unable to challenge NVIDIA's leadership near term.Source
AMDneutralmid-termThe host notes that AMD and others are chasing AI chips but that they cannot shake NVIDIA's leadership in the short-to-medium term; this is a competitive assessment with no price direction for AMD.Source
NVDAbullishshort-termHe argues the Huang scandal is a one-off unrelated to the core business; once focus returns to earnings ahead of the November 17 report, the stock should rebound.Source
NVDAbullishshort-termThe host treats the CEO scandal as a one-off reputational shock unrelated to core revenue: graphics processors remain supply-constrained, next-year revenue growth should reach the announced 70%, and rivals cannot dislodge NVIDIA's lead near term. He expects the market to refocus on the November 17 earnings, producing a rebound, though he did not add to the position because his account is fully invested.Source
SOXXbullishmid-termHe notes the SOX held up well despite NVIDIA's drop, showing some potential; reclaiming the yearly line could end the mid-term downtrend.Source
SOXXbullishmid-termThe semiconductor index held up with only a small decline and a small bullish candle even while its leader fell for two days, with roughly half the components higher; the host sees some potential and says reclaiming the annual line could end the medium-term downtrend.Source
Fed Policynegative for stocksshort-termSeveral Fed officials sounded hawkish and market pricing implies a December hike is nearly certain; the host feels policymakers will respond to stubborn inflation with aggressive tightening, which he treats as negative for risk assets.Source
Fed Policynegative for stocksshort-termWith Waller, Bowman, Logan and Goolsbee all hawkish and a December hike fully priced, the host thinks the Fed is preparing strong medicine for sticky inflation.Source
Inflationnegative for stocksshort-termOctober CPI beat expectations on rent, energy, tariffs and AI demand; the host reads it as a negative for US stocks.Source
Bonds & Ratesnegative for stocksshort-termYields rebounded with the 10-year near 5%; higher rates raise funding costs and pressure valuations and share prices.Source
Inflationnegative for stocksshort-termOctober consumer prices rose more than expected, core inflation held flat and stayed above the Fed target, with housing, tariffs, oil and AI demand as drivers. The host concludes that rising rate expectations and higher yields compress valuations, making the print bearish for U.S. equities.Source
AI Capexnegative for stocksmid-termWith several cloud giants' free cash flow turning negative, he infers AI capex growth may slow over the next year or two even if it doesn't peak immediately.Source
AI CapexneutralOn AI capital spending, the host relays bank research that 2027 deployment is well supported while 2028 is less certain and some chip valuations remain attractive, and adds that going public greatly strengthens a company's ability to raise capital. He states no clear directional call.Source
MSFTneutrallong-termAnthropic's office suite threatens Microsoft 365's core; he expects a short-term dip but long-term stability, and says he dares invest in big clouds like Microsoft.Source
MSFTneutralNew AI office suites threaten Microsoft's core productivity business, roughly 30% of the company, but the host thinks displacing it is hard. A short-term knee-jerk drop is possible while the long term should stay solid, so no clear directional call is made.Source
MUneutralThe host discloses being trapped in a losing 20-share Micron position after chasing the theme, and can only hope for a rebound to break even. He cites Bank of America's forecast of a memory supercycle through 2028 with record revenue and profits as support, but gives no explicit directional call.Source
MUbullishmid-termHe discloses holding 20 MU shares at a multi-thousand-dollar loss, endorses BofA's memory supercycle thesis lasting into 2028, and hopes to break even.Source
GOOGLneutralshort-termAlphabet is the host's core holding, but the near-term direction is unresolved: holding above 270 dollars could bring a gradual rebound, while breaking below 270 would trap the heavy volume from the earnings day and risk a slow grind lower. A coming Berkshire holdings filing may set the bigger direction, and the host worries about a sale.Source
GOOGLneutralshort-termHe discloses Alphabet is his heavy position; holding above $270 would support a rebound while a break below risks a slow bleed, with Berkshire's 13F next week possibly decisive.Source
CRWVbearishmid-termCoreWeave has strong orders but huge capex and ongoing losses; he calls new-cloud names very risky and says he won't buy.Source
CRWVbearishThe host argues that new cloud names such as CRWV carry huge capital spending and ongoing losses despite large order backlogs, and investors fear the money is wasted. He prefers established cloud giants like Microsoft and Alphabet and says the risk is too high for him to buy.Source

Fed PolicyInflationBonds & RatesAI Capex

2026-11-10

Microsoft suddenly went soft again.【2026-11-10】

Microsoft suddenly went soft again.【2026-11-10】

8 bull · 8 bear · 9 neutralYouTube

SPY QQQ NVDA AMD SOXX MSFT+3

SPYneutralshort-termThe host describes the S&P 500 pullback as a normal consolidation after the prior day's big rebound, with a small bullish daily candle; no directional call is made, though a third-party report cites a 7,100-7,300 bottoming zone.Source
SPYneutralshort-termThe host views the small pullback as normal consolidation after a big rebound, with sentiment clearly improved.Source
QQQbullishshort-termTwo bullish candles put the Nasdaq back above its annual moving average; the host calls the daily chart leaning optimistic and views the annual line as long-term support with a relatively high statistical chance of holding, giving a mildly positive short-term bias.Source

QQQbullishshort-termHe leans optimistic on the Nasdaq: two bullish candles reclaimed the yearly line, a long-term support that statistically tends to hold.Source
NVDAbullishlong-termHe sees GPUs still in short supply, with the announced 70% revenue growth next year achievable and rivals unable to challenge NVIDIA's leadership near term.Source
AMDneutralmid-termThe host notes that AMD and others are chasing AI chips but that they cannot shake NVIDIA's leadership in the short-to-medium term; this is a competitive assessment with no price direction for AMD.Source
NVDAbullishshort-termHe argues the Huang scandal is a one-off unrelated to the core business; once focus returns to earnings ahead of the November 17 report, the stock should rebound.Source
NVDAbullishshort-termThe host treats the CEO scandal as a one-off reputational shock unrelated to core revenue: graphics processors remain supply-constrained, next-year revenue growth should reach the announced 70%, and rivals cannot dislodge NVIDIA's lead near term. He expects the market to refocus on the November 17 earnings, producing a rebound, though he did not add to the position because his account is fully invested.Source
SOXXbullishmid-termHe notes the SOX held up well despite NVIDIA's drop, showing some potential; reclaiming the yearly line could end the mid-term downtrend.Source
SOXXbullishmid-termThe semiconductor index held up with only a small decline and a small bullish candle even while its leader fell for two days, with roughly half the components higher; the host sees some potential and says reclaiming the annual line could end the medium-term downtrend.Source
Fed Policynegative for stocksshort-termSeveral Fed officials sounded hawkish and market pricing implies a December hike is nearly certain; the host feels policymakers will respond to stubborn inflation with aggressive tightening, which he treats as negative for risk assets.Source
Fed Policynegative for stocksshort-termWith Waller, Bowman, Logan and Goolsbee all hawkish and a December hike fully priced, the host thinks the Fed is preparing strong medicine for sticky inflation.Source
Inflationnegative for stocksshort-termOctober CPI beat expectations on rent, energy, tariffs and AI demand; the host reads it as a negative for US stocks.Source
Bonds & Ratesnegative for stocksshort-termYields rebounded with the 10-year near 5%; higher rates raise funding costs and pressure valuations and share prices.Source
Inflationnegative for stocksshort-termOctober consumer prices rose more than expected, core inflation held flat and stayed above the Fed target, with housing, tariffs, oil and AI demand as drivers. The host concludes that rising rate expectations and higher yields compress valuations, making the print bearish for U.S. equities.Source
AI Capexnegative for stocksmid-termWith several cloud giants' free cash flow turning negative, he infers AI capex growth may slow over the next year or two even if it doesn't peak immediately.Source
AI CapexneutralOn AI capital spending, the host relays bank research that 2027 deployment is well supported while 2028 is less certain and some chip valuations remain attractive, and adds that going public greatly strengthens a company's ability to raise capital. He states no clear directional call.Source
MSFTneutrallong-termAnthropic's office suite threatens Microsoft 365's core; he expects a short-term dip but long-term stability, and says he dares invest in big clouds like Microsoft.Source
MSFTneutralNew AI office suites threaten Microsoft's core productivity business, roughly 30% of the company, but the host thinks displacing it is hard. A short-term knee-jerk drop is possible while the long term should stay solid, so no clear directional call is made.Source
MUneutralThe host discloses being trapped in a losing 20-share Micron position after chasing the theme, and can only hope for a rebound to break even. He cites Bank of America's forecast of a memory supercycle through 2028 with record revenue and profits as support, but gives no explicit directional call.Source
MUbullishmid-termHe discloses holding 20 MU shares at a multi-thousand-dollar loss, endorses BofA's memory supercycle thesis lasting into 2028, and hopes to break even.Source
GOOGLneutralshort-termAlphabet is the host's core holding, but the near-term direction is unresolved: holding above 270 dollars could bring a gradual rebound, while breaking below 270 would trap the heavy volume from the earnings day and risk a slow grind lower. A coming Berkshire holdings filing may set the bigger direction, and the host worries about a sale.Source
GOOGLneutralshort-termHe discloses Alphabet is his heavy position; holding above $270 would support a rebound while a break below risks a slow bleed, with Berkshire's 13F next week possibly decisive.Source
CRWVbearishmid-termCoreWeave has strong orders but huge capex and ongoing losses; he calls new-cloud names very risky and says he won't buy.Source
CRWVbearishThe host argues that new cloud names such as CRWV carry huge capital spending and ongoing losses despite large order backlogs, and investors fear the money is wasted. He prefers established cloud giants like Microsoft and Alphabet and says the risk is too high for him to buy.Source

Fed PolicyInflationBonds & RatesAI Capex

2026-11-091 video

2026-11-09

Jensen Huang wipes out 200B in one shot, should you buy the dip or cut losses on Nvidia? [2026-11-09]

Jensen Huang wipes out 200B in one shot, should you buy the dip or cut losses on Nvidia? [2026-11-09]

4 bull · 1 bear · 6 neutralYouTube

QQQ SPY TSLA NVDA AMD SOXX+3

QQQbullishlong-termThe Nasdaq has historically relied on its annual line; buying below it has always been followed by new highs.Source
SPYbullishlong-termThe S&P 500 has long-term support at its rising annual moving average; buying near it is historically high-probability while shorting there is not.Source
TSLAneutrallong-termTesla is cited as a company that could fall apart without its key person, Musk, who is seen as irreplaceable.Source

NVDAbullishshort-termThe scandal's revenue impact is minimal, NVIDIA's compute leadership and 22x valuation are intact, so a big drop may be a buy-the-bounce chance, though compliance risk is hard to price.Source
AMDneutralshort-termAMD's 13% surge partly reflects spillover from NVIDIA selling, plus its own catalysts: an upgrade and Google Cloud's expanded EPYC adoption.Source
AI Capexpositive for stocksmid-termData-center construction is delayed, not cancelled; Morgan Stanley's $1.6T/$1.8T capex forecasts suggest the recent bearish catalysts are weaker than feared.Source
SOXXneutralshort-termThe Philly semi index is counter-attacking from below its annual line; the sector only revives if NVIDIA escapes the scandal shadow and rebounds with peers.Source
GOOGLneutralshort-termGoogle's post-earnings crash left a big gap; the next watch item is Berkshire's 13F filing in a week, while TPU demand stays strong.Source
Recession Risknegative for stockslong-termThe host believes a US market crash is inevitable, though the timing is unknown.Source
TERneutralshort-termTeradyne in the host's portfolio rebounded 13%, which he describes as behaving like a speculative 'demon stock'.Source
MUneutralThe host discloses holding Micron, which rebounded nearly 7% but remains his largest unrealized loss after prior declines.Source

AI CapexRecession Risk

2026-11-061 video

2026-11-06

Pick the Stocks That Just Crashed to Buy. [2026-11-06]

Pick the Stocks That Just Crashed to Buy. [2026-11-06]

5 bull · 6 bear · 5 neutralYouTube

SPY QQQ AMD QCOM GOOGL TSLA+3

SPYbearishshort-termThe daily candle shows heavy overhead selling; a renewed selloff next week would test support at 7250.Source
QQQbearishshort-termThe Nasdaq failed to reclaim its 250-day line; below it bears dominate and another drop can come at any time.Source
Othernegative for stocksshort-termThe VIX eased but remains elevated and fear is not fully cleared, so the risk of another market drop persists.Source

Employmentpositive for stocksmid-termOctober payrolls beat sharply with upward revisions and unemployment at 4.1%, signaling solid growth and a healthy labor market that supports equities.Source
Fed Policynegative for stocksmid-termStrong jobs and above-consensus wage growth give the Fed room to stay hawkish, a headwind for stocks.Source
AI Capexpositive for stocksmid-termSome states are pausing data-center builds, but supportive states like Wyoming remain, so relocating investment partially resolves the selloff's trigger.Source
Valuationnegative for stocksmid-termAnthropic's valuation has halved before listing, which he sees as risky, and a trillion-dollar IPO would siphon liquidity from the broader market.Source
AMDbullishshort-termThe host endorses Wood's dip-buying of quality names like AMD, which rebounded 11 points; he calls the short-term trade well executed.Source
QCOMneutralmid-termHe has traded Qualcomm with mixed results and sees no clean trend; Google's stake came via a share swap, so there is no real 13F boost.Source
GOOGLneutralshort-termThe host holds a heavy Google position; the stock steadied and bounced, but he offers no directional call beyond that.Source
TSLAbearishshort-termThe host holds a heavy Tesla position but notes this week's big red candle broke the uptrend from August, and plain results argue against a major leg up.Source
SPCXneutralshort-termSpaceX bounced over 8 points back to its $135 IPO price; the host says the issue price is only a reference as the stock oscillates around it.Source
ABNBneutrallong-termAirbnb beat estimates and plans a $12B buyback, but AI agents could disrupt its booking model long term; with that unknowable, he stays on the sidelines.Source
INTCbullishshort-termIntel broke down on earnings amid a semiconductor pullback, but volume has expanded notably, giving some chance of a bounce.Source
QQQbullishlong-termHe argues broad index ETFs deserve to be held without stop-losses, since over decades every hold-through has ultimately produced large gains.Source
Otherneutrallong-termHe rarely shorts now and only recently shorted a Hong Kong stock off the public account; shorting should target the weakest markets.Source

OtherEmploymentFed PolicyAI CapexValuation

2026-11-051 video

2026-11-05

US Stock Market Crash: Why It's Happening and What to Do. [2026-11-05]

US Stock Market Crash: Why It's Happening and What to Do. [2026-11-05]

0 bull · 0 bear · 4 neutralYouTube

Market BreadthneutralThe host says the broad market is strong and that stocks with even a small thematic catalyst are jumping sharply, with the market chasing related concepts, but he gives no forward-looking direction.Source
NVDAneutralThe host observes that as soon as concepts around NVDA's server products appear, the market immediately chases them; he offers no share-price direction.Source
OtherneutralThe host says water-cooling technology still cannot fully meet the heat-dissipation demand of the related chips, a technical-constraint view without a price direction.Source

TSMneutralThe host notes that the prior packaging came from Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company's CoWoS technology, a retrospective supply-chain fact with no share-price direction.Source

Market BreadthOther

2026-11-041 video

2026-11-04

US Stocks: 24-Hour Epic Reversal. [2026-11-04]

US Stocks: 24-Hour Epic Reversal. [2026-11-04]

4 bull · 7 bear · 13 neutralYouTube

SPY QQQ GOOGL MSFT NVDA SPCX+6

SPYneutralshort-termAlthough the S&P 500 recovered several moving averages and filled the gap, reducing near-term crash risk, the host still maintains a range-bound view: a surge is not imminent and only grinding to new highs would redefine the uptrend.Source
QQQneutralshort-termThe Nasdaq rose solidly but gave back a large intraday gain, leaving a long upper shadow that signals overhead selling pressure; the host sees neither a crash nor a surge as likely and expects continued choppy trading.Source
Geopoliticspositive for stocksThe host argues that a Democratic Congress creates gridlock that limits major policy shifts, so the tax cuts and deregulation favorable to the economy and stocks are likely to persist, and the market ultimately followed the seasonal pattern of rising after midterms, making the outcome net positive.Source

Bonds & Ratesnegative for stocksThe host expects congressional checks on deficit spending and debt growth to push medium- and long-term bond yields lower, and notes the 10-year Treasury yield dipped slightly after Democrats took Congress.Source
OtherneutralThe host notes both funds are young with less than four years of data, and although the Democratic fund has higher returns and assets, he says it is too early to conclude Democratic lawmakers are better stock pickers.Source
GOOGLneutralThe host names Google alongside Nvidia and Microsoft as a core US asset and AI-compute name, without any separate directional call.Source
MSFTneutralThe host only lists Microsoft among the mega-cap tech names and core US assets held by the Democratic trading fund, without a standalone directional view.Source
NVDAneutralThe host groups Nvidia with Microsoft and Google as the core assets of the US market and as a common holding of both parties' funds, and discloses holding it in his public account, without giving an explicit directional call.Source
AI CapexneutralLower Treasury yields would cut financing costs for cloud giants' capital spending, but Democratic scrutiny of data-center power, water and carbon emissions raises the difficulty and cost of bringing capacity online, so the host sees both positives and negatives.Source
Otherpositive for stocksDespite headwinds from environmental review of data centers, the host leans toward the view that the midterm result is net positive for mega-cap tech because Democratic lawmakers themselves hold many of these names.Source
Otherpositive for stocksThe host sees healthcare and clean energy as the biggest beneficiaries of Democratic policy, since higher insurance and healthcare budgets help hospitals, drugmakers and insurers, while support for EVs, solar, wind and storage helps those companies.Source
SPCXbearishThe host views SpaceX as the most exposed loser from a Democratic Congress because the US government and defense programs are a major customer, and a rumored Tesla merger would be highly unlikely under Democratic antitrust scrutiny.Source
TSLAneutralThe host says Musk's heavy Republican donations made Tesla and SpaceX the obvious perceived losers, so sentiment may cause a short-term dip, but he thinks the long-term damage is not serious and that the real catalyst is whether Musk delivers on his promises.Source
Othernegative for stocksThe host lists private prison stocks among the sectors hurt by a Democratic win, since Democrats want to end contracts with private prisons; the two corrections groups gapped down sharply but recovered by the close.Source
Othernegative for stocksThe host argues defense contractors are highly policy-sensitive, and if Democrats deny the administration's budget and block further military expansion over the next two years, the government as their biggest customer becomes a major negative for defense stocks.Source
Othernegative for stocksThe host sees tougher environmental approval raising data-center costs as another negative for emerging cloud providers, which were already weak with surging borrowing costs and a seemingly bottomless share-price decline.Source
EmploymentneutralThe host says the stronger-than-expected October ADP print is good news for the economy but also removes the Fed's hesitation to hike, so for stocks the good and bad offset each other.Source
Fed Policynegative for stocksThe host argues that strong employment data means the Fed can raise rates without worry, and this week's job openings and ADP figures both point that way, which is negative for equities.Source
SOXXbullishshort-termThe Philadelphia semiconductor index fell 3.13% to 10268, near the 10000 mark, which the host sees as a cluster of technical support unlikely to break; only a break would reverse the bull trend, so he expects a rebound in the coming days.Source
MUneutralshort-termThe host discloses a small but meaningfully losing position in Micron, which fell 7% that day, and says the next thing to watch is support around 740 and then roughly 660.Source
UBERneutralThe host notes Uber beat earnings and trades at only 15 times earnings, so valuation is not expensive, but robotaxis could reshape ride-hailing while Uber's own autonomous fleet could defend its position, leaving risk and reward balanced.Source
QCOMneutralQualcomm slightly beat estimates but shares dropped after hours; handset revenue fell 26% while automotive grew 89%, and although the host expects future data-center growth to offset handsets, he says the stock has been a very unpleasant holding.Source
Cryptonegative for stocksThe host views crypto as a Republican-backed sector and thinks advancing the clarity bill will be very difficult with Democrats controlling Congress, while a recent exchange theft adds to a run of bad news.Source
CRCLneutrallong-termThe host says the quarter did not blow up, but the large earnings beat came mostly from one-off token issuance income rather than recurring stablecoin reserve interest, and stablecoin circulation was flat year over year, so he only needs the stock to stabilize in the 50-80 zone through a long bottoming process.Source

GeopoliticsBonds & RatesOtherAI CapexEmploymentFed PolicyCrypto

2026-11-031 video

2026-11-03

Rare in US Stocks: AMD Surges After Hours. Experts Say the Market Will Fall Another 9%? [2026-11-03]

Rare in US Stocks: AMD Surges After Hours. Experts Say the Market Will Fall Another 9%? [2026-11-03]

5 bull · 4 bear · 7 neutralYouTube

SPY QQQ SOXX AAPL AMD NVDA+3

SPYbearishshort-termThe S&P 500 rebound was capped by the half-year moving average and has closed below that line for three days, leaving short-term pressure; after a long sideways stretch the host worries about a downside break, with the annual line near 7200 seen as strong support.Source
QQQneutralshort-termThe host called the Nasdaq rebound merely a pause inside a downtrend with support around 25000, and said that despite a short-term downtrend on the daily chart a rebound is likely soon, without committing to a single direction.Source
Otherpositive for stocksshort-termThe host said that if the fear-and-greed index falls to 10 he would buy the dip aggressively and would like the rebound to last a few days, while noting that this scenario is reportedly unlikely.Source

Geopoliticsnegative for stocksshort-termThe host argued that after the midterms the White House faces fewer constraints on military action, that indirect US-Iran talks are unlikely to yield results and the odds of renewed war are not small; if Middle East tensions worsen this week and oil rebounds, it would be a negative for US equities.Source
EmploymentneutralSeptember job openings rose, hiring and quits increased and layoffs fell, so the labor market still shows positive signals; employment remains within the Fed's full-employment goal and is therefore not the Fed's current headache.Source
InflationneutralThe host said the Fed's main current objective is pulling inflation back to the hard 2% target, while tariffs, war and artificial-intelligence investment are all factors pushing inflation higher.Source
Bonds & Ratesnegative for stocksFaster bond issuance by tech giants has increased supply and lifted market rates, with the December rate-hike probability back up to 78.9%; even if the hiking cycle is short, persistently high bond yields remain heavy pressure on tech and growth stocks.Source
SPYbullishlong-termDrawing on the Morgan Stanley strategist's short-bearish, long-bullish call, the host said 8000 on the S&P 500 is entirely achievable; a black-swan shock could still drag it to 7100 in the short run, but the longer-term target stands.Source
SOXXbullishshort-termAfter a deep pullback, 10000 on the semiconductor index is simultaneously a round number, the annual moving average and the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement, forming a dense support confluence; the host believes a rebound is imminent absent a major external shock.Source
AI CapexneutralThe host views artificial intelligence as the market's main narrative: if it breaks there is no theme large enough to take over and the market enters a sustained weak phase, while a revival in AI-theme investing gives the market a chance to restart an uptrend.Source
AAPLbullishlong-termRising memory prices raise costs for all handset makers equally, but Apple has stronger pricing power to pass those costs to consumers, so memory is only a temporary minor issue in its long-term story; the stock's low volatility and habit of filling gaps make it a buy during irrational selloffs.Source
AMDbearishshort-termDespite record third-quarter revenue and data-center results and above-consensus fourth-quarter guidance, the host said the post-earnings bounce has not changed the downtrend and worried the after-hours rebound would be short-lived.Source
NVDAneutralThe host disclosed that he no longer holds AMD but still owns NVDA plus several small semiconductor positions, and hopes AMD can hold up into the next session to lift the semiconductor index; he gave no directional call on NVDA itself.Source
SHOPneutralUpside fourth-quarter guidance and active use of AI give the outlook some positives, but a price-to-earnings ratio of 96 makes it far more expensive than US tech leaders, and the host offered no clear directional call.Source
SMCIneutralEven with a beat and an after-hours gain, the daily chart is still in a bottoming phase after a long decline and it is unclear whether a bottom will form and a rally begin; the company also carries unique risks such as accounting-fraud rumors, an auditor resignation and a former executive's chip-smuggling case.Source
GOOGLbullishshort-termAfter the selloff Google is near a one-year low and prior-low support, and turnover on earnings day was only 0.85%, meaning trapped institutions and retail investors are not rushing to exit, so the host expects a rebound.Source

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