TheChartGuys

Is The Bottom In?

10 bull · 4 bear · 13 neutralYouTube

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• SPY▲bullishshort-termS&P futures lost the weekly 12 EMA without follow-through, and the falling wedge has broken bullish, but a daily uptrend is needed to put all-time highs back in play.Source
• SMH▲bullishshort-termSemiconductors bounced strongly off two-week support, but a daily uptrend is still needed to confirm a more confident bottom.Source
• Other↗positive for stocksshort-termMemory shows relative strength versus semis, retracing past 50% of the pullback, but it too needs a daily uptrend to confirm the bottom.Source

• XLF▼bearishmid-termXLF shows bearish ratio divergence and a lower high is the most likely scenario, though the fund itself holding sideways while semis rally favors broader bulls.Source
• XLV●neutralshort-termHealth care is going sideways at the highs and remains healthy on its own, guided by the daily 12 EMA.Source
• XLP▼bearishshort-termStaples keep drifting lower with a clean inverse relationship to semis; bears can look for a daily lower high.Source
• GOOGL▼bearishshort-termGoogle is getting smoked on earnings with big follow-through out of its diamond pattern; lower highs are likely on all time frames, with the quarterly 12 EMA near 250 below.Source
• MSFT▲bullishshort-termMicrosoft posted bullish earnings with new all-time highs and continues riding its two-day 12 EMA upward.Source
• IGV▲bullishmid-termSoftware remains in an uptrend; as long as weekly higher lows hold above 103.73, bulls control the monthly move, but losing that level would mark a real shift in the sector.Source
• QQQ●neutralshort-termThe Nasdaq is still sideways with room for a daily higher low, but bulls must regain a daily uptrend for weekly bounce follow-through.Source
• IWM▲bullishmid-termThe Russell has confirmed a daily uptrend with a weekly bounce underway and a character shift on the RTY/ES ratio, giving the market bull tailwind; bulls want the 2900s to confirm a weekly higher low.Source
• Other●neutralshort-termKOSPI saw a nice move off its lows but, like semiconductors, needs a daily uptrend to hold key support and stay in range.Source
• XBI●neutralshort-termBiotech bottomed right at key two-week support, but a potential head and shoulders means bears need to show up soon.Source
• MU▲bullishshort-termMicron shows continued relative strength versus peers, never approaching its July lows, and tops the list of names that could break resistance near 108.Source
• TSM●neutralshort-termTSMC has a daily uptrend and weekly bounce underway, but a weekly lower high is the expectation.Source
• AMD●neutralshort-termAMD is right off the lows with plenty of room for a daily higher low, with earnings next week.Source
• AAPL●neutralshort-termApple is slinking along its daily 12 EMA, not really going anywhere but holding all-time highs, with earnings next week.Source
• AMZN●neutralshort-termAmazon earnings tomorrow are binary: bullish results hold the monthly 12 EMA, bearish results send it toward monthly support at 225.Source
• TSLA▲bullishmid-termTesla's monthly bounce continues and the TSLA/QQQ ratio broke its downtrend with nice follow-through, putting Tesla back on the map; 453.40 is key resistance overhead.Source
• SPXC●neutralmid-termSPXC is hanging out on its base; if bulls hold it that's a good look, but a breakdown keeps the hunt for a weekly higher low going.Source
• NXE▲bullishshort-termAmong uranium names, NexGen has broken through daily lower highs, showing relative strength versus peers.Source
• UEC●neutralmid-termUranium Energy is breaking daily lower highs but the chart remains structurally weak; only the most aggressive bulls would act on daily signals for a longer swing.Source
• NVDA●neutralshort-termNVIDIA keeps slinking to new highs, but bearish ratio divergence against QQQ with new October lows in the ratio gives reason to doubt the signal.Source
• Other↘negative for stocksmid-termMetals remain weak: gold and silver ride the daily 12 EMA down, platinum and palladium are weaker, and miners need a confirmed daily uptrend; relative strength in palladium would be an early bull signal.Source
• Crypto↗positive for stocksmid-termBitcoin is bouncing cleanly off the weekly 12 EMA with healthy consolidation; lower lows lack follow-through and its refusal to fall while other markets weaken stands out.Source
• Oil & Energy●neutralmid-termOil rides the daily 12 EMA; the adjusted chart shows a cup-and-handle bumping into resistance while the unadjusted chart leaves room for a weekly lower high — a potential fake-out setup.Source
• DIA●neutralshort-termThe Dow and utilities are guided by daily uptrends while scouting weekly lower highs; if they roll over, that adds confidence to the semiconductors and memory rotation.Source

BTC Bring on FOMC

1 bull · 9 bear · 13 neutralYouTube

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• SPY●neutralshort-termThe S&P 500 head and shoulders confirmed but has produced no follow-through, mirroring crypto's bear break without continuation.Source
• Crypto●neutralshort-termBitcoin's bear break lacks follow-through; no red flags in the consolidation, but bulls are uncomfortable into the FOMC, with a bearish reaction exposing the 75,000 low.Source
• Crypto↘negative for stocksshort-termEthereum's bounce is expected to produce only a daily lower high below 2521, monthly consolidation has begun, and ETH/BTC remains weak.Source

• Fed Policy●neutralshort-termNo hike is the high-probability outcome; the press conference drives the volatility, and the Thursday-Friday reaction matters more than the last 90 minutes Wednesday.Source
• QQQ●neutralshort-termMajor earnings over the next three days will move the Nasdaq, which Bitcoin bulls want to stay strong; daily EMA 12 is resistance.Source
• Crypto●neutralshort-termZEC's falling wedge broke bull and it is attempting an inverse head and shoulders toward the 1346-1383 neckline, with a daily uptrend still unconfirmed.Source
• Crypto●neutralshort-termNEAR's megaphone shows breaks in both directions with no follow-through; the trend lines are becoming useless as it chops around.Source
• Crypto●neutralshort-termHYPE just began monthly consolidation; the bear break has no follow-through, 82.42 is the key daily resistance test, and bulls must confirm a daily uptrend off the 75 hold.Source
• APLD▼bearishshort-termAPLD is in weekly and daily downtrends; anything under 21.56 is just a lower high and bears have complete control while it caps price.Source
• Crypto●neutralmid-termWith a roughly 65% retracement and volatility in both directions, equilibrium is the most likely scenario for USELESS; a weekly higher low then a weekly lower high.Source
• Crypto●neutralshort-termXRP must defend 1.24; a break confirms a weekly downtrend and monthly lower high, and bulls need help from the FOMC reaction to hold support.Source
• Crypto●neutralmid-termQNT retraced too much; breaking daily lower highs is a start but a weekly lower high is most likely and it could trade range-bound for months.Source
• CLSK▼bearishmid-termCLSK's three-month equilibrium broke bear; monthly, weekly and daily are all downtrends, so any oversold bounce should just form a weekly lower high.Source
• RIOT▼bearishmid-termRIOT's charts have been signaling weakness all year when asked about it.Source
• IREN▼bearishmid-termThe host flatly dislikes IREN, calling it weak with relative weakness.Source
• Crypto●neutralmid-termSUI's retracement is too deep; anything under 106 is a lower high, and a long-term bottom requires a two-week inverse head and shoulders breaking 130 and 142.Source
• XLF▼bearishshort-termThe host discloses shorting XLF at 56.28 as a hedge against his remaining long, betting on a weekly lower high via a 4-hour head and shoulders with semis rotating stronger, targeting the 54s.Source
• AMD●neutralshort-termAMD is a function of SMH's daily resistance test and will be impacted by upcoming major earnings.Source
• Other↘negative for stockslong-termCannabis stocks keep getting destroyed as long as regulatory change remains stuck in bureaucracy.Source
• SMH▲bullishshort-termThe host trimmed only a third of his SMH long and lets the rest ride, citing the rotation thesis back into semis and memory; bulls must next confirm daily uptrends with major memory earnings ahead.Source
• MSTR▼bearishlong-termMSTR is in a monthly downtrend with relative weakness versus Bitcoin and may set a new monthly lower high; the bulls' only hope is a monthly inverse head and shoulders.Source
• Crypto↘negative for stockslong-termCoins like CAKE that retraced over 50% risk months of range-bound squeeze-and-bleed; the host prefers names with smaller retracements and higher continuation potential.Source
• Bonds & Rates●neutralmid-termThe 10-year and oil only re-enter the market narrative when hitting fresh highs; without new highs they stay out of the news cycle.Source

Life and Trading Lessons from the yard

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Initial Market Red Flags

7 bull · 2 bear · 17 neutralYouTube

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• Market Breadth●neutralshort-termThe market has swung all year between semis/memory and the broadening sectors; the host is watching for a temporary swing back toward semis over the next couple of weeks while watching equal weight for a weekly lower high.Source
• SPY▼bearishshort-termWith the S&P 500 losing the weekly EMA 12 guide, the host discloses an SPXS hedge, sold his HSA equity exposure, and is day trading mostly short — clearly defensive near term.Source
• SPY●neutrallong-termThe host has no urge to sell his long-term no-touch SPY because it is already protected by the hedge — a hold, not a bullish call.Source

• Fed Policy●neutralshort-termThe FOMC meets Wednesday with a 90% chance of no hike; the reaction will shape short-term market direction.Source
• Earnings●neutralshort-termWith a heavy earnings slate, the host is not initiating new swing positions ahead of reports because earnings erode his edge unless a profit cushion exists.Source
• QQQ●neutralshort-termThe Nasdaq is weaker because semis are leading down; a daily support is being tested and even a hold could still shape a weekly head and shoulders.Source
• SMH●neutralshort-termSMH's key support sits at 503; breaking it confirms a monthly downtrend, while a bounce needs a bullish FOMC reaction. The host has low conviction either way.Source
• Other●neutralshort-termFor memory (DRAM gauge), the question is whether bulls hold the low and form a two-week higher low; the host has made two break-even bounce attempts and is waiting for bulls to act.Source
• SNDK●neutralshort-termSNDK has about 18% of downside space with earnings coming; the earnings reaction will heavily influence whether memory names can form tightening ranges.Source
• XLF●neutralshort-termFinancials remain in a daily uptrend with anything above 55.03 a higher low, but the host has trimmed and is watching for a 4-hour head and shoulders signaling a weekly lower high.Source
• XLV▲bullishshort-termHealthcare made a nice all-time-high breakout with a daily uptrend guide, a leader of the risk-off rotation.Source
• XLY●neutralshort-termConsumer discretionary has a more convincing bounce but still has space for a daily lower high and a confirmed downtrend.Source
• NKE▲bullishlong-termThe host still holds Nike and will leave a swing position as a long-term bottom attempt, citing a potential monthly volume climax bottom — the highest monthly share volume in decades — even though he trimmed short term.Source
• MRNA●neutralshort-termMRNA saw a massive sell-the-news reaction after a data leak; a temporary top looks in, but the volatility makes it his go-to day trade with opportunity in both directions, demanding discipline.Source
• Other●neutrallong-termThe biotech sector could still form a monthly cup and handle if 140 holds as support, though the host doubts it is the most likely scenario without a fresh AI-biotech headline.Source
• Other●neutralshort-termThe host's software hedge short was stopped out at break-even after the hacking narrative flipped software from relative weakness to relative strength.Source
• CRWD●neutralshort-termCRWD is still being watched for a potential lower high, but the bounce has left plenty of space for a higher low instead.Source
• NTRA▲bullishmid-termNatera, the lead AI-biotech name, still looks strong — if 380 holds as support it forms a weekly bull flag.Source
• Other↗positive for stocksshort-termRepeated hacking headlines form a new narrative, and cybersecurity names like CRWD, NET and PANW showed glaring relative strength on Friday — narrative plus technicals aligned.Source
• TLT▲bullishmid-termThe 10-year topped as called, and TLT got the big bounce instead of metals; the next checkmark for bulls is confirming a weekly uptrend.Source
• Other●neutralshort-termThe dollar has retraced little and still shows a potential bull flag on the 2-day timeframe; dollar bears have not yet confirmed a daily downtrend.Source
• Other↘negative for stocksshort-termGold is still weak: every bounce is a daily lower high and it is testing weekly support, failing to rally even as the dollar and rates consolidated.Source
• Other●neutrallong-termLithium, rare earths and uranium are crushed; the host expects an eventual rotation back and is waiting for 3-month higher lows, which could take months to form.Source
• Other↗positive for stockslong-termSilver has broken weekly support and its top is in for a while, but a 3-month higher low is near-certain eventually and the ensuing bounce will be worthwhile — patience required.Source
• Other●neutralmid-termMiners had a more impressive bounce and could hold even if gold and silver break support; the host plans to bottom-fish miners only once gold confirms a daily uptrend — still watching.Source
• Oil & Energy↗positive for stocksshort-termAfter Tuesday's bull break from the 4-hour equilibrium, the odds of a weekly lower high in oil dropped from 80% to 33%; bulls remain in control heading back toward the 106.75 recent high, and the host is not shorting.Source

Semiconductor Red Flag?

1 bull · 3 bear · 15 neutralYouTube

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• SOXX●neutralshort-termSemiconductors show a temporary bottom that is hardly convincing — just a tightening range that must break to the upside for a confident bottom.Source
• SPY●neutralshort-termThe host sees the S&P 500 as weekly consolidation with a solid bounce off the lows, but a 4-hour rising wedge is trying to break bear; bulls need to regain a daily uptrend.Source
• QQQ▼bearishshort-termThe Nasdaq is weaker than the S&P with an unconvincing bounce that never reached the daily 12 EMA; it could still be a bear flag until a daily uptrend confirms.Source

• Market Breadth●neutralshort-termStrong sectors XLF, XLV, XLP, XLU keep pushing to new highs; as long as the rotational torch-passing continues the S&P stays healthy, but weakness in unison would be a red flag.Source
• Other↘negative for stocksmid-termLRCX broke through its lows on earnings, confirming a monthly downtrend; the more semi names that lose their July lows, the greater the odds others follow.Source
• MU●neutralshort-termMU and SNDK remain well above their monthly 12 EMAs with a solid intraday bounce, but are in tightening ranges that must break upward to shift momentum.Source
• IWM●neutralmid-termThe Russell is testing its monthly 12 EMA with a monthly higher low forming, and the RTY/ES ratio confirmed a daily uptrend for the first time in a while — small caps could carry the torch if bulls follow through.Source
• TSLA●neutralmid-termTesla remains sideways in a megaphone pattern post-earnings; a monthly lower high versus 453 is the most likely scenario, with 345 as the key support.Source
• SPCX●neutralmid-termSPCX had bullish earnings but sits in a weekly inside bar; a bull break continues the monthly bounce, a bear break sets up a monthly lower high — nothing to do within the range.Source
• MSFT●neutralshort-termMicrosoft is tightening again right on its 2-day 12 EMA; the chart's status quo is intact with earnings upcoming.Source
• GOOGL▼bearishmid-termGoogle is breaking down from a long-watched tightening range — explicitly not great — though the Nasdaq holding up despite it is a mild positive for the index.Source
• META●neutralmid-termMeta's earnings were a nothing burger; bulls must hold the 680 region or monthly consolidation shapes up, and Meta could realistically stay sideways for another year.Source
• AMZN▲bullishshort-termAmazon had a huge Monday and is building a daily bull flag with nice dip-buying; the monthly higher low off the 12 EMA is set and follow-through on the recovery is encouraging.Source
• AAPL●neutralApple just continues to haphazardly grind on up with nothing notable going on.Source
• Bonds & Rates●neutralshort-termYields keep falling with new lows overnight on the 30-year while the 10-year holds up better; the weekly 12 EMA is the next health checkpoint.Source
• Other●neutralshort-termNBIS reports tomorrow while testing its monthly 12 EMA; initiating here is a gamble, and a bearish earnings reaction could send it the way of LRCX into quarterly consolidation.Source
• Other●neutralmid-termMetals remain very weak — gold at a daily equilibrium, silver capped by its daily 12 EMA — though risk-to-reward favors aggressive bulls fishing for a weekly bounce.Source
• Oil & Energy●neutralshort-termOil sits in double daily inside bars whose break decides between a weekly lower high or continuation toward resistance; XLE keeps showing relative strength, which energy bulls want.Source
• Crypto●neutralshort-termBitcoin remains in a battle at its volume-profile zone with the POC acting as resistance; nothing changes until acceptance below 80k or above 88k.Source

Does your trading need some changes?

0 bull · 0 bear · 5 neutralYouTube

• Other●neutralThe host sees seasonal change as a signal to change his routine as a trader, including his pregame and premarket preparation.Source
• Other●neutralThe host wants to mix things up because he feels stagnant and wants to break out of a bad streak.Source
• Other●neutralThe host suggests using the season change as a shift in yourself, such as changing workout, wind-down, premarket prep, or trading strategies.Source

• Other●neutralThe host states a risk rule: he will stop trading for the day if he has two losses in a row.Source
• Other●neutralThe host plans to work out every day pre-market to get his heart rate going and keep his mind sharp.Source

CPI Instills Fear In Markets

5 bull · 6 bear · 10 neutralYouTube

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• SPY▼bearishshort-termThe host sees his first red flag in the S&P 500 via SPY, his largest IRA holding, with a confirmed daily downtrend; he will not fully hedge unless SPY loses weekly EMA 12, at which point he would hedge up and be more open to bear trades.Source
• XLV▲bullishHealthcare is clearly the hedging sector to be in, with XLV posting one of its top five highest closes ever, ABBV at a new all-time high, and MRK and UNH trying to set monthly higher lows, making the sector stand out for strength.Source
• ABBV▲bullishABBV hit a new all-time high today and remains strong, reflecting relative strength within the healthcare sector.Source

• MRK●neutralMRK is trying to put in a monthly higher low; the host only notes the attempt and does not state a clear directional view.Source
• UNH●neutralUNH is also trying to set a monthly higher low; the host only describes the pattern without a stated direction.Source
• XLF●neutralshort-termXLF has been fine, gapping down on CPI but closing at the high and confirming a daily higher low; it must hold that daily higher low to keep the bounce going, so the financial sector needs to continue participating.Source
• XLI●neutralXLI is at fresh lows while XHB and IYT remain sideways; these sectors need to participate for the breadth bounce to continue.Source
• NVDA●neutralmid-termNVDA shows a potential long-term rising wedge (bearish) but remains in a weekly uptrend; as long as price holds above 208.93 it is a weekly higher low, and the host explicitly says he is not bullish memory and semis.Source
• Other↘negative for stockslong-termDRAM/memory has already set the monthly lower high after a bull break with zero follow-through, confirming clear weakness; the host is highly confident in this bearish structure.Source
• SMH●neutralshort-termSMH is harder to decipher after prior strength and may be shaping a monthly lower high, but it is not confirmed; bears have short-term momentum, but direction awaits confirmation of a daily downtrend.Source
• Bonds & Rates●neutralThe 10-year yield spiked on CPI but rolled over, forming a 4-hour head and shoulders and now a daily head and shoulders attempting to follow through into weekly consolidation; the host only describes the pattern without a stated yield direction.Source
• Other↗positive for stocksshort-termThe US dollar has seen a big breakout to new highs and remains strong; it needs to lose the daily EMA 12 to weaken, but is still holding firm.Source
• IGV▼bearishshort-termThe host shorted IGV due to rising wedge bearish potential; he entered near 112 with a stop over the 113.70 high, break-even around 109.50, and the ideal bear scenario is a monthly lower high.Source
• MRNA▲bullishshort-termThe host holds a long swing position in MRNA; the chart still looks great and is knocking on the door of 52-week highs, with a bullish backdrop into the October 25 data release favoring dip buys, though volatility can stop him out.Source
• Other↘negative for stocksmid-termGold bears are in full control as bulls keep failing; gold failed to confirm a 12-hour uptrend and is back down testing fresh lows, showing weak price action.Source
• Other↘negative for stockslong-termSilver is in capitulation and freefall with RSI smashed and bears in complete control; the host still holds a long position (barely green, most profits given back) and is watching for a bear break of long-term support with no follow-through.Source
• Oil & Energy↘negative for stocksmid-termOil/energy remains strong with a daily stair-step, but the host's most likely scenario is a weekly lower high and an eventual confirmed downtrend for a monthly lower high and equilibrium; he is not urgently day-trading it.Source
• Market Breadth●neutralshort-termThe S&P 500 equal-weight (SPXEW) has a 4-hour rising wedge and bulls hope it is not a weekly lower high or bear flag; the key question is whether it can set a daily higher low to continue the bounce.Source
• XLY●neutralXLY needs to confirm an inverse head and shoulders pattern to signal continuation, which is also relevant for names like Nike and McDonald's; the host only sets the confirmation condition without a stated direction.Source
• NKE▲bullishmid-termThe host holds a Nike swing position, having trimmed 20%, but still wants it to head to weekly EMA 12, reflecting a bullish lean and his personal long position.Source
• QQQ●neutralmid-termThe Nasdaq weekly chart shows a bull break with no follow-through, which is not ideal for bulls, but compared with past 50% retracements after straight-up moves it is not yet a glaring red flag, just an initial warning.Source

BTC Back Testing Levels

4 bull · 3 bear · 14 neutralYouTube

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• Market Breadth●neutralshort-termThe broader market is extremely tricky and uneasy; the host knows who is leading and lagging, but from a bird's-eye view the stock market's direction is uncertain, with semis dumping and Apple at highs.Source
• SPY▲bullishshort-termThe S&P 500 is holding on extremely well despite semiconductors dumping and may be in a rising wedge; the host is bullish as long as last Thursday's low holds, and will turn more protective if it is lost.Source
• Crypto↗positive for stockslong-termBitcoin remains bullish on the weekly uptrend; after breaking the 82,000 support zone, the bear break had no follow-through, which is the best-case response, and a weekly higher low is shaping up with no red flags.Source

• Crypto●neutrallong-termEthereum is weaker; its bounce retracement was less significant than Bitcoin's, the pullback was deeper, and it formed a double bottom, leaving it in a weaker 12-hour tightening range with potential monthly consolidation ahead.Source
• Crypto↘negative for stocksmid-termETHBTC broke bear, indicating crypto is dropping and Ethereum is falling harder than Bitcoin; a monthly trend change is required for bulls to regain ground, so bears currently have the edge.Source
• TSLA●neutralTesla has a megaphone pattern on the daily time frame, similar to Moderna, which is a structure to be cautious of.Source
• MRNA●neutralModerna (MRNA) recently had a megaphone pattern as well, similar to Tesla, warranting caution on no-follow-through moves.Source
• Other●neutralMegaphone patterns are becoming more prevalent; the host strongly suggests traders get good at recognizing and adapting to them because breaks often have no follow-through.Source
• Crypto●neutralshort-termHype is trying to shape up a falling wedge for a weekly higher low and needs a 12-hour bounce; the host does not like the setup much.Source
• Crypto●neutralshort-termThe host prefers the ZEC weekly higher low watch over Hype; ZEC is in a tightening 12-hour range with weekly EMA 12 in play, and bulls need to set a higher low.Source
• Crypto●neutralshort-termSand broke bull from an hourly falling wedge but got no follow-through, leaving a 12-hour tightening range; the weekly higher low is still watched, but no-follow-through moves warrant caution.Source
• Crypto↘negative for stockslong-termThe altcoin market as a whole is just a new penny stock market, with a handful of winners in a sea of losers and most in long-term downtrends; focus on altcoins with price discovery and blue-sky breakouts.Source
• CLSK●neutralmid-termCLSK is not even in a daily uptrend and looks ugly; bulls must hold $8 and need a daily bounce to confirm a weekly trend change, while share structure and dilution add supply pressure.Source
• Other●neutralThe host speculates that more megaphones could be due to AI bots, but does not know and does not care, since the cause will not make more money.Source
• Other↘negative for stocksshort-termThe host shorted Space X for a swing trade based on a confirmed rising wedge and daily downtrend, but exited near break-even pre-market after recognizing a bear break with no follow-through and a shorter-term megaphone; the 158.80 high was the stop-out level.Source
• Crypto↗positive for stockslong-termBitcoin has been stronger than gold for seven months and continues to show relative strength after a weekly breakout.Source
• Crypto●neutralmid-termXRP is just in a tightening weekly range, with a high, higher low, lower high and an attempt at a higher low, offering no clear direction.Source
• Fed Policy●neutralshort-termThe market is more volatile because of rates and inflation policy, and there is no consensus on hikes, leaving many unknowns in the macro fundamentals.Source
• Inflation●neutralshort-termCPI data significantly shifts the probability of how many hikes are coming before year-end and is a big unknown factor in the macro fundamentals.Source
• COIN●neutralCOIN's daily chart has no trends or continuation and is a choppy mess; the host has no edge trading it and would not trade it.Source
• HOOD▲bullishWhen looking for strength, the host prefers HOOD because its weekly range is constricting and the chart is clearer than COIN.Source