Despite short-term weakness, the host remains long-term bullish on gold and still expects a big move higher, though a break above new highs is not expected until around 2028.
If a big bond rally occurs out of nowhere as a flight to safety, it would signal that the real big crash is underway, potentially a 30-40% downturn in the markets as big money flees to safety.
Long term the host still sees gold reaching $15,000, but only after it completes the current refueling correction.
Despite the short-term bearish view, the host remains long-term bullish on gold, believing that from a multi-year perspective gold will still see a big move, though new highs may not come until around 2028.
The host endorses the thesis that memory stocks face oversupply as facilities keep being built, which is why Berkshire avoids them.
The host argues that private credit and the debt market are starting to fall off a cliff. Many private credit companies have taken on debt and are selling for less than they are worth, so actual default levels are likely much higher than the reported 1% to 3% of deals; moreover, distressed payment-in-kind (PIK) deals are growing, and the private credit market is about $1.3 trillion, meaning the risk is understated.
If all sectors pull back from overbought technical levels, the Dow Jones, which has been flat and outperforming, could also suffer a brutal selloff.
Market breadth is still pretty overbought and overextended; if all sectors start to pull back from these technical levels, much more aggressive selling pressure could appear.
META's 14C filing implies large equity financing, potentially tens of billions; equity financing is 100% negative for the stock, requiring a 5-10% discount to its long-term fair position, creating uncertainty.
Meta has negative free cash flow and may issue new shares to raise funds, with no money for buybacks, putting downward pressure on the stock; at the same time, its 5-year CDS hit a record high as bond investors demand higher rates.
Among these tech giants, SpaceX's bond spread increase is second only to Oracle, showing the market has begun pricing default risk; the higher CDS reflects increased default risk.