The host believes FICO's 55% year-to-date fall from $2,400 to $700 overshot the deterioration in its moat; if it retains most market share versus VantageScore, the stock likely goes back past $1,000.

Fair Isaac was discussed before; the host says nobody knows where it will go.

FICO is his top non-AI value pick in this bloodbath: record results, strong buybacks, and political pressure that won't dislodge the business.

FICO is down about 70% because the government opened the door for a rival credit score in the mortgage market and a large lender already announced it is switching, plus FICO is cutting 15% of its workforce. However, the host argues that replacing the credit score baked into an entire industry is slow, risky, and complicated. FICO remains trusted and deeply wired into lending, and even with competition its high margins mean it could lower price slightly and still make a lot of money. If its moat holds up at least partly, the stock may have fallen too far. Analysts expect profit growth, and the host's own ten-year analysis shows a middle intrinsic value of about $1,021, so he is bullish on FICO.

FICO's problem is not that the stock is not cheap, but that its market share can only decline and the bottom is unknown, so I will not buy it no matter how cheap the stock gets.

The FHFA's uniform pricing grid and introduction of VantageScore break FICO's mortgage monopoly moat, exposing it to direct price competition and likely forced price cuts; the market must reprice its revenue growth and profitability, triggering a Davis double-kill of valuation and earnings. The stock has retraced about 75% since its December 2024 peak, and the monthly chart has again hit the lower rail of its descending channel with a slight break; if it effectively breaks down, it could accelerate toward the 200-month moving average near $450, the starting point of the November 2022 rally, which is reasonable without the monopoly premium.