What Value Investing with Sven Carlin, Ph.D. said in this video:
- MRPneutrallong-termMillrose's 12% yield is attractive if no crisis hits land prices, but in a downturn these land-holding entities become the bag holders and can go bankrupt — a purely scenario-dependent setup.Source
- LENbullishlong-termLennar's asset-light shift cut risk, the stock trades at a low cyclical P/E, Berkshire is buying against Wall Street's strong-sell consensus, and an EPS recovery with a P/E of 15 implies a $150 stock.Source
- NVRbullishlong-termNVR is the asset-light model everyone copies, with $17 billion of historical buybacks nearing its market cap; on normalized mid-cycle EPS of $500 and a P/E back to 20, the stock implies $10,000 versus $6,000 now.Source
- WYbullishlong-termWeyerhaeuser now trades at the value of its land; a dividend cut and some debt are risks but land can be sold, so now is the time to start buying in stages while the timber keeps growing in value.Source
- SWKneutralmid-termStanley Black & Decker looks fairly priced at a 5–7% cash-flow return with no moat; nothing bad, but it won't make you rich.Source
- MAAneutrallong-termMid-America Apartments has returned 8% a year for 32 years — not bad, not stellar — and that is roughly what one can expect from these REITs.Source
- MASneutralmid-termMasco is fairly priced; a valuation reversion implies a P/E of 11, but it may not be well protected in a recession and the host is not deeply familiar with it.Source
- RLbearishmid-termThe host credits Ralph Lauren's brand elevation and pricing power but finds the stock expensive now, and fashion names can turn ugly fast, so it is too risky at these levels.Source