What Zac美股笔记 said in this video:
- ValuationneutralThe host argues that P/E ratios are unreliable for judging whether a stock is cheap, because net income can be distorted by mark-to-market gains on securities (e.g., Alphabet’s SpaceX stake), tax-law changes (e.g., Meta’s asset write-down), or accounting fraud (e.g., Luckin Coffee, Enron). He therefore relies mainly on DCF valuation and uses P/E, PEG, P/B, and P/CF only as supplementary metrics.Source
- GOOGLneutralmid-termThe host believes Alphabet (GOOGL) is more reasonable than earlier (e.g., May) and its prior overvaluation is being repaired, but he cannot tell whether it will head up or down, and the direction may not even relate to earnings quality. The headline P/E of 17.7 looks cheap, but net income was inflated by mark-to-market gains on holdings such as SpaceX; adjusting for core operating profit growth implies trailing net income of about 149.971B and a true P/E of roughly 28.7, not the cheapest among mega-caps. His DCF valuation is 249, and the price has moved closer to it; after the Oct. 28 earnings and the symmetrical triangle apex, a direction should be chosen.Source
- OtherneutralThe host believes generative AI currently cannot match the quality of human creators for images, text, or video—AI-generated food photos fail on appeal, AI voice breaks sentences incorrectly, and AI-written scripts lack personal thinking. In editing, AI also cannot yet replace professional tools like Photoshop or Premiere because of their granular control and because many creative needs cannot be clearly expressed as prompts. However, an AI-generated Photoshop-like app (Compositor) shows generative AI is both a threat to Adobe and a potential opportunity for it to integrate AI.Source
- ADBEbullishmid-termThe host has reopened a long position in Adobe (ADBE) and believes the stock is too attractive here with room to rise. Its P/E is only 13.3 and the price is far below his DCF fair value, roughly half of reasonable value. Adobe’s Photoshop, Premiere and other tools are industry standards, with steady growth in revenue, profit, and cash flow. Generative AI currently cannot produce acceptable image/video quality nor replace the granular control of professional editing software, and Adobe is integrating AI itself. The key risk is a free AI-generated alternative such as Compositor disrupting the industry, so he will watch news closely and be ready to exit.Source