What 美股Alpha姐 said in this video:
- SPYbullishshort-termSPY is oscillating in the 759–779 range; I view this as a bull flag following a clear volume breakout, so the higher probability is a continued move upward. Until the Fed meeting, expect range-bound action; one can sell high/buy low or enter on the right side after a breakout.Source
- Inflationneutralshort-termNext week's CPI and core CPI are important data; the August CPI will be very critical and will affect the Fed meeting's decision on whether to hike in September, but I am not making a directional forecast on inflation and only flag it as something to watch.Source
- Bonds & Ratesneutralshort-termI think next week's 10-year Treasury auction is more important than the 30-year auction, as the market is focused on long-end yields; these auctions will determine the short-term rate trend.Source
- QQQbullishshort-termQQQ is ranging in a 705–721 box; it is a post-breakout retest that is holding so far but lacks short-term momentum. Purely from a technical view, the probability of an upside breakout is higher, but we need to wait for the Fed meeting to confirm the rate path; tech stocks are heavily influenced by rates, so the June high is not yet broken.Source
- DIAneutralThe Dow (DIA) is range-bound and briefly broke below the August 20 low; although it recovered the next day, it made a lower low and failed to make a new high, which is not a good signal. The direction will have to wait for the Fed meeting.Source
- IWMneutralshort-termIWM is still oscillating in a large box, with first support at 287 and resistance near 302; I expect this price action to continue for another one to two weeks.Source
- Bonds & RatesneutralThe 10-year Treasury yield has broken above the key 4.74 resistance and confirmed; resistance remains at 4.8 and 5.0. Although each breakout of a key level may trigger short-term stock market pressure, since the yield rise is gradual and the Fed is not suddenly hiking, the market has gradually digested high rates, so the long-term impact should not be large.Source