Every clear bullish/bearish call, checked against price and the SPY benchmark over the selected window
6 scored1 with positive excessMedian avg excess −5.1%Median hit rate 20.6%Checked through the 11/13 close (ET)
| YouTuber | Samples? | Hit rate vs SPY? | Avg excess? | Calibration? | Clarity? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 42 | 47.6% | +0.1% | −1.5% | 30.4% | |
| 34 | 50.0% | −1.6% | −28.3% | 21.1% | |
| 65 | 20.0% | −5.1% | −6.5% | 12.0% | |
| 54 | 20.4% | −5.1% | −2.2% | 11.1% | |
| 60 | 20.0% | −7.9% | −15.7% | 7.8% | |
| 67 | 20.9% | −8.1% | −16.3% | 12.1% | |
| 22 | Collecting data | ||||
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| 2 | Collecting data | ||||
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Only clear bullish/bearish calls on a specific ticker count. The baseline is the close on the call's trading day; the outcome is settled at the close 20 trading days later. All returns use adjusted prices (splits are not gains or losses).
Excess return = directional return − the SPY benchmark in the same direction. For a bullish call: ticker gain − SPY gain; bearish calls are mirrored as shorts. A "hit" requires the right direction and beating the benchmark.
Calibration = hit rate of high-conviction calls minus hit rate of regular calls (a positive value means strong convictions really do land better; hidden when either side lacks samples). Clarity = share of a YouTuber's opinions that are judgeable at all.
No score below 30 samples. This is a post-hoc check on public statements — not a judgement of anyone's skill, and it says nothing about what happens next.